Business Aviation Industry Set To Grow In Size, Scale And Strength Over The Next Five Years see more
NAFA member Chad Anderson, President of Jetcraft, discusses the two major differences between this year's market forecast and those from previous years.
Last month we released our 5-Year New & Pre-Owned Business Aviation Market Forecast – the first report of its kind to take a precise, comparative and quantified look at both types of aircraft transactions.
Aside from introducing pre-owned market predictions, we’ve updated our overarching methodology as compared to previous reports, making it even more precise. We’ve shifted to a five-year rather than a 10-year outlook, to better reflect the current aircraft ownership experience, and adjusted the overall population of aircraft analyzed to more closely align with our expertise. Furthermore, we’ve classified new deliveries as transactions only from date of entry into service and retrospectively normalized classifications prior to 2012, when all aircraft built were considered new deliveries. Finally, we’ve leveraged more of our own transaction data for a truly consolidated outline of how we see the industry behaving.
The findings show that our industry will continue to grow in size, scale and strength over the next five years, hitting nearly $30bn per year in revenue by 2023 – a remarkable figure. This is the first time a value like this has ever been assigned to the industry. We also expect to see the business aviation fleet grow by 12.1% in that time frame.
The forecast predicts continued and significant growth in the pre-owned industry, with an expected 11,765 transactions over the next five years, totaling $61bn in value. By 2023, we forecast four times as many pre-owned transactions vs. new deliveries, primarily due to the growing value proposition of these aircraft. Maintenance capabilities are increasing, and we are seeing greater accessibility, rapidity and cost-efficiency of high-quality refurbishment. This is resulting in higher demand for older or out-of-production aircraft, including amongst buyers who previously exclusively bought new models. Our forecast reveals that the average aircraft retirement age is now 32 years – nearly a decade older than previously thought.
We continue to see a shift towards large aircraft types in both new and pre-owned markets worldwide. Buyers are looking for larger and longer-range models and as a result of this, manufacturers are focusing on producing aircraft almost entirely in the midsize segment and above.
New unit deliveries are predicted to stay flat throughout the forecast period whilst generating higher revenues, due to the increase in large aircraft transactions. Over the next five years, we’ll see many more customers turn towards large jets rather than light jets, as the needs of business travelers evolve on a more global scale.
On behalf of the team at Jetcraft, I am honored and excited to have produced the very first new and pre-owned business aviation market forecast, stemming from our 55 years’ experience in connecting buyers and sellers across the world. We hope you find it useful, interesting and insightful and we welcome your comments, questions and feedback.
To download the full 2019 5-Year New & Pre-Owned Business Aviation Market Forecast, visit www.jetcraft.com/knowledge/market-forecast.
View video here.
This article was originally published by Jetcraft on June 28, 2019.
Used Jet Market Opinion: Chris Brenner, Jetcraft see more
NAFA member, Chris Brenner, Senior Vice President of Sales at Jetcraft, discusses the used jet market.
Whether it's buyer uncertainty or a lack of premium inventory, some analysts have noted a dip in the used jet market in the opening months of 2019. Rebecca Applegarth asks how Jetcraft’s Chris Brenner reads the situation.
So far, 2019 has been a year of global uncertainty on many fronts, whether due to talk of potential Sino-American trade wars, Brexit, or political restiveness in Europe.
Has the political instability impacted the global used business jet sales arena? What else has affected used aircraft sales trends in the early part of the year? Various reports on the used jet marketplace indicated a slight slowing Year-over- Year for used aircraft transactions during the first quarter of 2019.
Having been trading in the pre-owned Business Aviation marketplace since 1962, today Jetcraft has offices around the world, and in 2018 the company facilitated more than 100 aircraft transactions for the first time in its history. Understandably, the health of the market in 2019 is of special interest.
“Several of the strongest markets for Business Aviation are currently experiencing political uncertainty,” Chris Brenner explains, “so naturally this is making buyers and sellers more cautious.”
Brenner has been in the Business Aviation industry for the past twelve years, having originally joined Jetcraft as sales and marketing coordinator in 2009 from a small aircraft dealership that specialized in piston and light turbine aircraft.
He has since held various sales positions within the organization and was appointed senior vice president, sales for the Americas in 2017.
“Taking a longer-term view,” he elaborates, “we are still in a period of steady growth - so if there is a slight slowing, it is all part of the cycle.”
Impacts of an Evaporating Pool of Inventory
An additional consideration as to what brought about the slowing in sales during early 2019 is that less than 10% of the world’s fleet of jets is currently on the market, which historically is very low.
The expectation is that with the leading aircraft manufacturers due to deliver some attractive newly-certified jets to customers later this year, some of those new aircraft owners will release their current jets onto the used market, thereby replenishing it somewhat.
Until that happens, though, there remains an unusually low percentage of newer used jets in the market.
A recent report from Hagerty Jet Group highlighted the resulting buyer frustration as a reason for an increase in off-market transactions (specifically in the Gulfstream G550 market, in the case of Hagerty’s analysis).
But is this something that is being seen in the wider used aircraft marketplace – and if so, should it be of concern to anybody? “It has been widely reported that there is a lack of younger inventory, and buyers are having to turn to older aircraft,” Brenner reflects.
“Many sales do take place before an aircraft has been marketed, which you could define as being ‘off-market’. However, this serves to demonstrate the demand for pre-owned aircraft in today’s market.
“It should also highlight the need to work with consultants that have inventory visibility and can provide you with up-to-the-minute market insights,” Brenner explains.
Though a buyer might like to find an off-market ‘deal’, the reality is that they may be less likely to find sellers prepared to accept an offer in keeping with the realities of the on-market aircraft values.
“Buyers and sellers need to do their due diligence. Then transparency is not an issue,” Brenner says of selecting the best consultant to represent your interests in an aircraft transaction, whether it’s on or off the market.
Stable, Sensible Pricing Essential
So, what will be important if the market is to continue to thrive when the pace of transactions picks up again and the anticipated replenishment of inventory occurs?
Speaking for both the near- and mid-term, Brenner concludes, “It is important that the market remains stable. For that to happen, pricing needs to remain sensible to avoid over-supply and maintain this period of steady, healthy growth.”
More information from www.jetcraft.com.
This article was originally written by Rebecca Applegarth and published in AvBuyer Magazine, Vol. 23, Issue 6, 2019, p. 48.
Jetcraft Launches Industry's First New and Pre-Owned Market Forecast see more
NAFA member Jahid Fazal-Karim, Jetcraft's Owner and Chairman of the Board, releases industry forecast predicting more than $150 billion in sales over the next five years.
Jetcraft, the global leader in business aircraft sales and acquisitions, has released a 5-Year New & Pre-Owned Business Aviation Market Forecast – the first of its kind to predict both new and pre-owned aircraft transactions.
The new forecast anticipates 11,765 pre-owned transactions over the next five years, equating to $61bn in value, and 3,444 new deliveries, representing $90.5bn. By 2023 it is expected that industry value will reach nearly $30bn per annum.
Jahid Fazal-Karim, Owner and Chairman of the Board at Jetcraft, says: “This is the first forecast to precisely analyze both new and pre-owned business aircraft transactions over a five-year period. The findings show that our industry will continue to grow in size and scale, hitting nearly $30bn per year in revenue by 2023, a truly impressive figure.
“New aircraft unit deliveries are predicted to stay flat throughout the forecast period while generating higher revenues, due to the increase in large aircraft transactions. Meanwhile, the pre-owned market is forecast to grow at a proportionally faster rate than new.”
Pre-owned business aircraft transactions are expected to outpace those of new deliveries four to one by 2023, according to Jetcraft’s forecast.
Fazal-Karim continues: “Buyers who in the past exclusively bought new aircraft are now more willing to consider pre-owned if it suits their mission, partly due to better opportunities for aircraft refurbishment and increasing MRO capabilities.”
Jetcraft’s forecast also maintains the clear shift towards large aircraft, both in pre-owned and new unit deliveries and highlights that the average retirement age of a business aircraft is 32.
Fazal-Karim concludes: “Our new forecast better reflects the current aircraft ownership experience and provides a more focused view of the industry. We are set for a dynamic five years, both in pre-owned and new aircraft transactions and I look forward to Jetcraft playing its part.”
Jetcraft’s full 2019 5-Year New & Pre-Owned Business Aviation Market Forecast is available to download at https://www.jetcraft.com/knowledge/market-forecast.
This article was originally published by Jetcraft on May 15, 2019.
Buyer Behavior Over the Next 10 Years see more
NAFA member, Chad Anderson, President of Jetcraft, discusses how findings from their 10-year market forecast reflect real-world trends in the private jet market.
The annual NBAA-BACE trade show is defined by one thing – an industry-wide interest in, and passion for, aviation.
Which is why Aerion’s announcement – that the first transatlantic supersonic jet since Concorde would soon be taking to the skies – was greeted with such enthusiasm at this year’s show. Aerion announced that the jet is on track to fly in June 2023, with the first transatlantic crossing the same year, 20 years after the celebrated Concorde flew its last.
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The faster-than-sound business jet will undoubtedly be a market disruptor, particularly given its anticipated intercontinental capabilities, which will be a key indicator of its market performance. According to Jetcraft’s new 10-year market forecast, those regions where business needs are increasingly globalized will take the lead in terms of unit deliveries. North America is set to account for 60% of deliveries (5,241 units) over the forecast period, with Europe taking second place at 18% (1,572), and Asia Pacific third at 13% (1,136).
Looking beyond new models to the pre-owned market, inventory levels are finally back to pre-recession levels, resulting in an increase in market competitiveness – and often more than one buyer for each aircraft. Some of the best deals are now made before an aircraft is even advertised. So, for both buyers and sellers, the need has never been greater to work with a consultant that has inventory visibility and can provide up-to-the-minute market insight.
It’s important to note, however, that buyer profiles have shifted slightly. Our analysis shows that some Fortune 500 companies have yet to return to historical aircraft transaction levels, as businesses are focusing on other financial priorities, such as share buybacks and paying down debt. This means they may not jump back into purchasing aircraft as quickly as we would have hoped.
Nevertheless, we anticipate that the increase in individual buyers will more than offset this. Worldwide wealth creation has spurred growth in family offices that are now offering a wide variety of specialized services, including business aviation. Together with the increase in block charter and fractional programs, this is exposing more ultra-high net worth individuals to the industry than ever before.
The lessons learnt in the industry over the past decade, since the economic downturn, have meant a slow return to optimism. But we’re confident that these lessons will ensure sustainable growth in business aviation for years to come, which is reflected in our 10-year market forecast. Ours is an enduring industry, and one with a buoyant future ahead.
Five Vital Questions About Private Jets Answered see more
NAFA member, Jahid Fazal-Karim, owner of Jetcraft, answers your questions about private jets.
With more than 20 offices worldwide and 55 years of experience Jetcraft is one of the true leaders in private aviation. With new jet share companies disrupting the market - creating an Uber-like marketplace in the elite world of private travel, Jetcraft continues to offer its experience and expertise to that top percent looking to purchase a private plane. Having accrued unparalleled industry expertise and understanding of the varied global markets in which they operate, has made Jetcraft a leader in aircraft sales, acquisitions and trades. We spoke with the company's current owner Jahid Fazal-Karim to understand the nuances behind what he does and how he's built such a successful company.
1. What does Jetcraft offer in the market that wasn't already available?
Jetcraft is the largest international buyer, seller and trader of business aircraft. Through our 55-year history, we have amassed a global presence, with more than 20 offices worldwide. Our sales directors know the local market, speak the local language and have facilitated numerous aircraft transactions in each locale. This unique global structure means we are positioned to provide regional on-the-round expertise and up-to-the-minute insight within any region, and we’re never more than a few hours away from one of our customers.
2. What is unique to Jetcraft unlike its competitors?
Jetcraft holds a unique position in the industry, situated between a traditional broker and a manufacturer. We have one of the world’s largest inventories of new and pre-owned aircraft, and we’re one of few companies with the resources to invest in owned aircraft, allowing us the ability take in trades and offer our customers a seamless transaction.
3. What advice would you give to a prospective jet buyer?
Don’t overlook the value of pre-owned aircraft. For some buyers, only a new aircraft will meet their needs. But, a pre-owned jet, especially five-years or younger, can offer a very similar product at a good value.
4. How many clients to do typically meet in a day?
At the risk of sounding clichéd, there really is no typical schedule in our line of work. I could spend time with one client or 20 depending on the day, but I do prefer to conduct face-to-face meetings as much as possible. Our connections are one of the many things that make working with Jetcraft so valuable - meeting in person and building relationships, will always be an extremely important part of our business.
5. How did Jetcraft begin? And how is the company planning to grow and innovate?
Jetcraft was founded in 1962 by Charles ‘Bucky’ Oliver, making it one of the oldest and well-established specialists. In 1987, the company began operating under the name Jetcraft, and I became co-owner in 2008. As international markets presented new opportunities for business aviation and large business jets became the preference, we grew from a primarily US-based organisation to an expanding international corporation, introducing operations in Russia, Dubai, Switzerland, Asia, Turkey, Australia, Africa and the UK.
We have facilitated hundreds of aircraft transactions, including more than 550 deals worth more than $10 billion in the last decade alone. Over the past 12 months, we’ve opened a new London HQ office and doubled the size of our European team. Looking ahead, our plan is to continue to cater exactly to the market’s demands without losing the intimate family that Jetcraft has always been and will remain to be.
We thrive on our rich history, experienced team and financial strength. But it’s our global reach that allows us to connect buyers and sellers across the world, help them find the best value and structure a seamless transaction. It’s simple in principle, but only feasible to do quickly and effectively if you have a solid network of offices and expertise in place.
Jetcraft Releases Fourth Annual 10-Year Business Aviation Market Forecast see more
NAFA member, Jetcraft, has released the findings from its fourth annual 10-year business aviation market forecast, building upon the 2017 prediction of a new business cycle of steady, healthy growth and expanding revenues.
Jetcraft, the global leader in business aircraft sales and acquisitions, is today releasing its fourth annual 10-year business aviation market forecast.
The annual market forecast reaffirms that steady growth in the private jet industry is set to continue, with predictions of 8,736 unit deliveries over the next 10 years, representing $271bn in revenues (based on 2018 pricing). North America will once again take the lead, accounting for 60% (5,241) of predicted new unit deliveries over the forecast period, with Europe expecting 18% (1,572), and Asia-Pacific 13% (1,136).
Jahid Fazal-Karim, Owner and Chairman of the Board at Jetcraft, says: “2018 has been a real turning point for business aviation, as we have now successfully navigated through our industry’s most difficult period. This year’s forecast predicts the continuation of our current business cycle of steady and healthy growth, driven by an increase in wealth creation and the demand for larger and more expensive aircraft.”
The increase in wealth creation over the past decade has spurred growth in family offices that are now offering a wide variety of specialized services, including business aviation. Together with the increase in block charter and fractional programs, this is exposing more UHNWIs to the industry than ever before.
However, despite continued economic growth, Fortune 500 companies have yet to return to historical aircraft transaction levels, due to maintaining a focus on other financial priorities, such as share buybacks and paying down debt. This customer segment is unlikely to restart aircraft purchasing programs until well into the cycle.
The forecast predicts that the large jet category, comprising super large, ultra long range and converted airline segments, will constitute 32% of total units (2,778) and 64% of total revenue over the next decade. All new aircraft model programs, both announced and projected, during the forecast period are exclusively widebodies.
Fazal-Karim adds: “Predicted unit deliveries in the large jet category account for a huge proportion of total revenues in the industry, demonstrating the trend towards larger, long range aircraft to support today’s global business needs.”
While the industry is set to embark on a period of substantial growth, its resilience during the challenges of the previous business cycle has prepared it well for expansion.
Fazal-Karim concludes: “We’re confident that the lessons we’ve learned over the past decade will ensure sustainable growth for business aviation in the years to come. Ours is an enduring industry, and one with a buoyant future ahead.”
Jetcraft’s full 2018 10-year Business Aviation Market Forecast is available to download here. Report graphs available for publication on request.
This market report was originally published by Jetcraft on October 10, 2018.