aviation market forecast

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Jetcraft Launches Industry's First New and Pre-Owned Market Forecast see more

    NAFA member Jahid Fazal-Karim, Jetcraft's Owner and Chairman of the Board, releases industry forecast predicting more than $150 billion in sales over the next five years.

    Jetcraft, the global leader in business aircraft sales and acquisitions, has released a 5-Year New & Pre-Owned Business Aviation Market Forecast – the first of its kind to predict both new and pre-owned aircraft transactions.

    The new forecast anticipates 11,765 pre-owned transactions over the next five years, equating to $61bn in value, and 3,444 new deliveries, representing $90.5bn. By 2023 it is expected that industry value will reach nearly $30bn per annum.

    Jahid Fazal-Karim, Owner and Chairman of the Board at Jetcraft, says: “This is the first forecast to precisely analyze both new and pre-owned business aircraft transactions over a five-year period. The findings show that our industry will continue to grow in size and scale, hitting nearly $30bn per year in revenue by 2023, a truly impressive figure.

    “New aircraft unit deliveries are predicted to stay flat throughout the forecast period while generating higher revenues, due to the increase in large aircraft transactions. Meanwhile, the pre-owned market is forecast to grow at a proportionally faster rate than new.”

    Pre-owned business aircraft transactions are expected to outpace those of new deliveries four to one by 2023, according to Jetcraft’s forecast.

    Fazal-Karim continues: “Buyers who in the past exclusively bought new aircraft are now more willing to consider pre-owned if it suits their mission, partly due to better opportunities for aircraft refurbishment and increasing MRO capabilities.”

    Jetcraft’s forecast also maintains the clear shift towards large aircraft, both in pre-owned and new unit deliveries and highlights that the average retirement age of a business aircraft is 32.

    Fazal-Karim concludes: “Our new forecast better reflects the current aircraft ownership experience and provides a more focused view of the industry. We are set for a dynamic five years, both in pre-owned and new aircraft transactions and I look forward to Jetcraft playing its part.”

    Jetcraft’s full 2019 5-Year New & Pre-Owned Business Aviation Market Forecast is available to download at https://www.jetcraft.com/knowledge/market-forecast.

    This article was originally published by Jetcraft on May 15, 2019.

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Buyer Behavior Over the Next 10 Years see more

    NAFA member, Chad Anderson, President of Jetcraft, discusses how findings from their 10-year market forecast reflect real-world trends in the private jet market.

    The annual NBAA-BACE trade show is defined by one thing – an industry-wide interest in, and passion for, aviation.

    Which is why Aerion’s announcement – that the first transatlantic supersonic jet since Concorde would soon be taking to the skies – was greeted with such enthusiasm at this year’s show. Aerion announced that the jet is on track to fly in June 2023, with the first transatlantic crossing the same year, 20 years after the celebrated Concorde flew its last.

    Click to Enlarge

    The faster-than-sound business jet will undoubtedly be a market disruptor, particularly given its anticipated intercontinental capabilities, which will be a key indicator of its market performance. According to Jetcraft’s new 10-year market forecast, those regions where business needs are increasingly globalized will take the lead in terms of unit deliveries. North America is set to account for 60% of deliveries (5,241 units) over the forecast period, with Europe taking second place at 18% (1,572), and Asia Pacific third at 13% (1,136).

    Looking beyond new models to the pre-owned market, inventory levels are finally back to pre-recession levels, resulting in an increase in market competitiveness – and often more than one buyer for each aircraft. Some of the best deals are now made before an aircraft is even advertised. So, for both buyers and sellers, the need has never been greater to work with a consultant that has inventory visibility and can provide up-to-the-minute market insight.

    It’s important to note, however, that buyer profiles have shifted slightly. Our analysis shows that some Fortune 500 companies have yet to return to historical aircraft transaction levels, as businesses are focusing on other financial priorities, such as share buybacks and paying down debt. This means they may not jump back into purchasing aircraft as quickly as we would have hoped.

    Nevertheless, we anticipate that the increase in individual buyers will more than offset this. Worldwide wealth creation has spurred growth in family offices that are now offering a wide variety of specialized services, including business aviation. Together with the increase in block charter and fractional programs, this is exposing more ultra-high net worth individuals to the industry than ever before.

    The lessons learnt in the industry over the past decade, since the economic downturn, have meant a slow return to optimism. But we’re confident that these lessons will ensure sustainable growth in business aviation for years to come, which is reflected in our 10-year market forecast. Ours is an enduring industry, and one with a buoyant future ahead.

     

    This article was originally published in Jetcraft's Jetstream Journal on November 30, 2018. 

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Jetcraft Releases Fourth Annual 10-Year Business Aviation Market Forecast see more

    NAFA member, Jetcraft, has released the findings from its fourth annual 10-year business aviation market forecast, building upon the 2017 prediction of a new business cycle of steady, healthy growth and expanding revenues.  

    Jetcraft, the global leader in business aircraft sales and acquisitions, is today releasing its fourth annual 10-year business aviation market forecast.

    The annual market forecast reaffirms that steady growth in the private jet industry is set to continue, with predictions of 8,736 unit deliveries over the next 10 years, representing $271bn in revenues (based on 2018 pricing). North America will once again take the lead, accounting for 60% (5,241) of predicted new unit deliveries over the forecast period, with Europe expecting 18% (1,572), and Asia-Pacific 13% (1,136).

    Jahid Fazal-Karim, Owner and Chairman of the Board at Jetcraft, says: “2018 has been a real turning point for business aviation, as we have now successfully navigated through our industry’s most difficult period. This year’s forecast predicts the continuation of our current business cycle of steady and healthy growth, driven by an increase in wealth creation and the demand for larger and more expensive aircraft.”

    The increase in wealth creation over the past decade has spurred growth in family offices that are now offering a wide variety of specialized services, including business aviation. Together with the increase in block charter and fractional programs, this is exposing more UHNWIs to the industry than ever before.

    However, despite continued economic growth, Fortune 500 companies have yet to return to historical aircraft transaction levels, due to maintaining a focus on other financial priorities, such as share buybacks and paying down debt. This customer segment is unlikely to restart aircraft purchasing programs until well into the cycle.

    The forecast predicts that the large jet category, comprising super large, ultra long range and converted airline segments, will constitute 32% of total units (2,778) and 64% of total revenue over the next decade. All new aircraft model programs, both announced and projected, during the forecast period are exclusively widebodies.

    Fazal-Karim adds: “Predicted unit deliveries in the large jet category account for a huge proportion of total revenues in the industry, demonstrating the trend towards larger, long range aircraft to support today’s global business needs.”

    While the industry is set to embark on a period of substantial growth, its resilience during the challenges of the previous business cycle has prepared it well for expansion.

    Fazal-Karim concludes: “We’re confident that the lessons we’ve learned over the past decade will ensure sustainable growth for business aviation in the years to come. Ours is an enduring industry, and one with a buoyant future ahead.”

    Jetcraft’s full 2018 10-year Business Aviation Market Forecast is available to download here. Report graphs available for publication on request.

    This market report was originally published by Jetcraft on October 10, 2018.