aircraft market forecast

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    JetNet Sees Mixed Signals for Bizjet Market see more

    NAFA member, Paul Cardarelli, JetNet's VP of Sales, shares the latest regarding the state of the business aviation market. 

    Business aviation data provider JetNet is fairly optimistic about the state of the business jet market, but sees some warning signs on the horizon, the company said in a state of the business aviation market presentation on Tuesday at EBACE 2019. While GDP has long been associated with business jet usage, JetNet VP of sales Paul Cardarelli said his company's analysts have noted a bit of decoupling in GDP growth between the U.S., which has been above 3 percent for the past two quarters, and the Euro Area, which has remained flat at 1.2 percent for that span. Cardarelli placed some of the blame on the protracted drama of Brexit, which is estimated to be impacting the UK economy by £19 billion a year, among other factors.

    He noted that the business jet fleet remains “geographically concentrated,” with approximately 61 percent of the world’s business jet fleet based in the U.S., and that the 22,138 business aircraft in service today had 4.5 million cycles in 2018. The last time the fleet was at that level of utilization was around 2005, when the in-service fleet numbered approximately 14,000.

    “So we’re about one-third more aircraft than we were in ’05, and yet we’re operating about the same number of cycles,” Cardarelli noted. “This is one of the things that gives us some concern. We have an oversupply situation and we have underutilization going on.”

    Another metric of the health of the market lies in the preowned segment. An inventory of less than 10 percent of in-service aircraft is considered by many as indicative of a seller's market and, as of the end of March, the numbers according to JetNet’s data were 9.3 percent for business jets and 6.7 percent for turboprops, the lowest levels since before the global economic downturn.

    Yet, the company noted there were 513 retail jet sale or lease transactions in the first quarter, compared to 641 a year ago—marking a year-over-year decrease of nearly 20 percent. Cardarelli attributes the discrepancy to a variety of reasons, including the partial U.S. government shutdown in January and stock market turbulence. Another factor could be the limited choice in the marketplace as buyers finally jumped in at the bottom of the market and have removed most of the choice aircraft.

    On the new aircraft side, all five of the major business jet airframers have shown an increase in backlogs in the first quarter, an aggregate 5.5 percent rise, with book-to-bill ratios all above one while Embraer and Bombardier are approaching two. “We feel good about that—that’s a good metric for the industry,” said Cardarelli. “We’re always conservative at iQ, we do want to call them as we see them, but we’re actually bullish, particularly for the OEMs."

    Since 2011, JetNet iQ has conducted its quarterly surveys gathering 500 responses in each for approximately 17,000 results from 132 countries. JetNet iQ founder Rollie Vincent shared the latest data from the company’s second quarter survey, which is 85 percent complete. The survey asks respondents to describe the current market conditions for business aviation as either not yet at the low point, at the low point, or past the low point, and establishes a net optimism score by subtracting the first number from the last.

    In the second half of last year, that number hovered around 50 percent, but plummeted to 27 percent in the first quarter of this year, and with the majority of responses received for the second quarter, optimism seems to have eroded further to 24 percent. In North America, more than 50 percent of the respondents either somewhat or strongly believe there is increasing risk for a global economic slowdown in the next 12 months, while in Europe that rate exceeded 70 percent.

    “It’s all across the market, the mood has changed,” said Vincent. “We think this is a caution sign, and it’s going to affect preowned sales first, which we think are coming down.” Also in Europe, nearly 60 percent of the respondents believe to some degree that uncertainty over Brexit has affected their aviation activities.

    The survey typically asks respondents several topical perception questions, and among them this quarter was if they are experiencing difficulties recruiting and retaining aviation-related staff. In North America and Europe, 77 percent and 67 percent agreed from somewhat to strongly that they were, adding more evidence of an industry-wide talent shortage.

    Asked about their belief that all their aircraft would be ADS-B-compliant by the Dec. 31, 2019 deadline in the U.S., enough respondents indicated strongly that they would not, leading the company to speculate that thousands of aircraft could be affected. That could perhaps to a long overdue mass retirement of aging aircraft, Vincent said.

    For the first time in eight years of surveys, JetNet noted the percentage of intent to purchase light jets, which had been as low as 11 percent, has finally exceeded 30 percent, meaning a long-awaited improvement in the segment is under way, fueled by the Pilatus PC-24. That aircraft model earned the most responses to the question “what model were you most interested in for your next purchase?,” beating out the popular Gulfstream G500, G650/650ER and Bombardier Challenger 350 over the past three surveys.

    Vincent updated the company’s 10-year forecast to 7,100 jet deliveries worth $237 billion through 2028. For the first time, the company included the category of supersonic business jets (SSBJ), which he expects will make an appearance sometime around 2026. Based on the survey results, more than 75 percent of the respondents in North America, and nearly 50 percent of those in Europe, believe to some degree that SSBJs will be in service in the next decade.

    This article was originally published by Curt Epstein in AINonline on May 22, 2019.

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Jetcraft Launches Industry's First New and Pre-Owned Market Forecast see more

    NAFA member Jahid Fazal-Karim, Jetcraft's Owner and Chairman of the Board, releases industry forecast predicting more than $150 billion in sales over the next five years.

    Jetcraft, the global leader in business aircraft sales and acquisitions, has released a 5-Year New & Pre-Owned Business Aviation Market Forecast – the first of its kind to predict both new and pre-owned aircraft transactions.

    The new forecast anticipates 11,765 pre-owned transactions over the next five years, equating to $61bn in value, and 3,444 new deliveries, representing $90.5bn. By 2023 it is expected that industry value will reach nearly $30bn per annum.

    Jahid Fazal-Karim, Owner and Chairman of the Board at Jetcraft, says: “This is the first forecast to precisely analyze both new and pre-owned business aircraft transactions over a five-year period. The findings show that our industry will continue to grow in size and scale, hitting nearly $30bn per year in revenue by 2023, a truly impressive figure.

    “New aircraft unit deliveries are predicted to stay flat throughout the forecast period while generating higher revenues, due to the increase in large aircraft transactions. Meanwhile, the pre-owned market is forecast to grow at a proportionally faster rate than new.”

    Pre-owned business aircraft transactions are expected to outpace those of new deliveries four to one by 2023, according to Jetcraft’s forecast.

    Fazal-Karim continues: “Buyers who in the past exclusively bought new aircraft are now more willing to consider pre-owned if it suits their mission, partly due to better opportunities for aircraft refurbishment and increasing MRO capabilities.”

    Jetcraft’s forecast also maintains the clear shift towards large aircraft, both in pre-owned and new unit deliveries and highlights that the average retirement age of a business aircraft is 32.

    Fazal-Karim concludes: “Our new forecast better reflects the current aircraft ownership experience and provides a more focused view of the industry. We are set for a dynamic five years, both in pre-owned and new aircraft transactions and I look forward to Jetcraft playing its part.”

    Jetcraft’s full 2019 5-Year New & Pre-Owned Business Aviation Market Forecast is available to download at https://www.jetcraft.com/knowledge/market-forecast.

    This article was originally published by Jetcraft on May 15, 2019.

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Seller's Market Settles in as Prices Increase and Buyers and Sellers Expectations for Price Come Tog see more

    NAFA member, Tony Kioussis, president of Asset Insight, forecasts prices to continue to increase through first quarter 2019.

    January 22, 2019 – According to Asset Insight’s Year End 2018 Market Report (AI2 Market Report), demand for late model turboprops and large jets continued to increase in the fourth quarter of 2018 and helped drive a continued seller’s market with higher average selling prices.Excellent quality “for sale” aircraft are expected to drive prices up further in Q1 2019 as buyers’ and sellers’ expectations continue to converge on selling price.

    The 4Q 2018 AI2 Market Report analyzes values for every production year of every modern make and model Business Class aircraft, while the Report’s maintenance analytics cover 94 fixed-wing models and 1,591 aircraft listed for sale.

    Other trends detailed in the 4Q 2018 Market Report include:

    • Ask Prices increased for all groups during Q4;

    • Inventory aircraft with higher maintenance exposure relative to Ask Price, spent 57%

      longer on the market than comparable aircraft;

    • Tracked fleet’s Quality Rating remained within the “Excellent” range and saw

      improvement in Q4 2018, over previous 12-month best ratings;

    • Excellent Asset Quality improves Maintenance Exposure for most groups, except for Large

      Jets as the unsold inventory’s accrued/embedded scheduled maintenance increased (worsened).

      “Q4 continued the trend with sales of high-quality, recent models driving average selling prices higher” said Tony Kioussis, president of Asset Insight, LLC. “The seller’s market continued through the end of 2018, and we are forecasting increased prices well into 2019. However, buyers should continue to research the cost for pending maintenance events.”

      Note to editors, managers and owners: Please see the bottom right corner of each category page for a concise summary of the results and conditions in that specific market segment.

      Exclusively available from Asset Insight, the AI2 Market Report includes eTrendTM, a 90-day forecast for aircraft value by make and model. This tool is especially helpful to sellers who are evaluating offers on their aircraft while concurrently considering if their prospects are likely to improve.

    Statistically, Asset Insight's eTrendTM forecasts are based on some of the most robust data analytics in the industry and have been thoroughly back-tested to confirm a significant degree of accuracy.

    To download the complete Market Report covering Q4 2018, visit www.assetinsight.com or click here.

    This press release was published on January 22, 2019 by Asset Insight.

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Jetcraft Releases Fourth Annual 10-Year Business Aviation Market Forecast see more

    NAFA member, Jetcraft, has released the findings from its fourth annual 10-year business aviation market forecast, building upon the 2017 prediction of a new business cycle of steady, healthy growth and expanding revenues.  

    Jetcraft, the global leader in business aircraft sales and acquisitions, is today releasing its fourth annual 10-year business aviation market forecast.

    The annual market forecast reaffirms that steady growth in the private jet industry is set to continue, with predictions of 8,736 unit deliveries over the next 10 years, representing $271bn in revenues (based on 2018 pricing). North America will once again take the lead, accounting for 60% (5,241) of predicted new unit deliveries over the forecast period, with Europe expecting 18% (1,572), and Asia-Pacific 13% (1,136).

    Jahid Fazal-Karim, Owner and Chairman of the Board at Jetcraft, says: “2018 has been a real turning point for business aviation, as we have now successfully navigated through our industry’s most difficult period. This year’s forecast predicts the continuation of our current business cycle of steady and healthy growth, driven by an increase in wealth creation and the demand for larger and more expensive aircraft.”

    The increase in wealth creation over the past decade has spurred growth in family offices that are now offering a wide variety of specialized services, including business aviation. Together with the increase in block charter and fractional programs, this is exposing more UHNWIs to the industry than ever before.

    However, despite continued economic growth, Fortune 500 companies have yet to return to historical aircraft transaction levels, due to maintaining a focus on other financial priorities, such as share buybacks and paying down debt. This customer segment is unlikely to restart aircraft purchasing programs until well into the cycle.

    The forecast predicts that the large jet category, comprising super large, ultra long range and converted airline segments, will constitute 32% of total units (2,778) and 64% of total revenue over the next decade. All new aircraft model programs, both announced and projected, during the forecast period are exclusively widebodies.

    Fazal-Karim adds: “Predicted unit deliveries in the large jet category account for a huge proportion of total revenues in the industry, demonstrating the trend towards larger, long range aircraft to support today’s global business needs.”

    While the industry is set to embark on a period of substantial growth, its resilience during the challenges of the previous business cycle has prepared it well for expansion.

    Fazal-Karim concludes: “We’re confident that the lessons we’ve learned over the past decade will ensure sustainable growth for business aviation in the years to come. Ours is an enduring industry, and one with a buoyant future ahead.”

    Jetcraft’s full 2018 10-year Business Aviation Market Forecast is available to download here. Report graphs available for publication on request.

    This market report was originally published by Jetcraft on October 10, 2018.