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aircraft maintenance

  • NAFA Administrator posted an article
    Used Aircraft Maintenance & Marketability Analysis – January 2021 see more

    NAFA member, Tony Kioussis, President & CEO of Asset Insight, LLC, shares the Used Aircraft Maintenance & Marketability Analysis for January 2021.

    January revealed that strong sales continued into the New Year, leading to another sizeable inventory reduction. Ask Prices also decreased for the third consecutive month to post a 12-month low figure – but which models were impacted the most? Tony Kioussis explores.

    Asset Insight’s January 29, 2021 market analysis covering 134 fixed-wing models, and 1,146 aircraft listed for sale exposed the seventh consecutive monthly contraction (8.7%) of Asset Insight’s tracked inventory fleet.

    At the same time, the high transaction level led to a significant inventory mix change, but the Quality Rating changed very little, improving from December’s 5.348 to 5.351, thereby remaining within the ‘Excellent’ range (per Asset Insight’s scale of -2.5 to 10). It has been in the ‘Excellent’ range since January 2020.

    January’s Aircraft Value Trends

    The tracked fleet’s average Ask Price decreased for the third consecutive month, and January’s 2.1% reduction created a 12-month low figure, with all four groups losing ground. Specifically:

    • Large Jet average Ask Prices fell 2.0% to a 12-month low after increasing 0.8% in December.
    • Mid-Size Jet prices lost 1.8% to post a 12-month low, in addition to their 8.4% drop in December.
    • Light Jet ask prices decreased 2.4% to a 12-month low, after falling 1.5% in December.
    • Turboprop ask prices dropped 1.1%, after losing 0.7% in December.

    January’s Fleet for Sale Trends

    Asset Insight’s tracked fleet has now posted seven consecutive monthly availability decreases, and inventory was down by 8.7% (166 units) during the month of January.

    • Large Jets: Inventory decreased 8.1% (35 units), and 6.9% of the active fleet is listed for sale.
    • Mid-Size Jets: Recorded a 9.2% decrease (48 units), with inventory at 10.1% of the active fleet.
    • Light Jets: Inventory decreased 8.1% (45 units), the group’s seventh consecutive monthly decline, and active fleet availability now stands at 8.9%.
    • Turboprop: The group’s sixth consecutive monthly decrease, this time 9.3% (38 units), resulted in just 6.3% of the active fleet seeking buyers.

    January’s Maintenance Exposure Trends

    Similar to the Quality Rating, Maintenance Exposure (an aircraft’s accumulated/embedded maintenance expense) saw surprisingly little change considering the high number of January transactions, worsening only 0.3%. By group, the figures were as follows…

    • Large Jets: Worsened/increased another 1.6%, following December’s 1.2% rise.
    • Mid-Size Jets: Rose a nominal 0.2% thereby adding to December’s 0.5% increase (deterioration).
    • Light Jets: Improved/decreased 3.9%, after worsening/increasing 2.5% in December to post the group’s 12-month worst/highest value.
    • Turboprops: Decreased/improved another 0.7% to post the group’s fourth consecutive 12-month low/best figure.

    January’s ETP Ratio Trend

    The overall tracked inventory’s ETP Ratio improved/decreased to 71.6%, but remains between the 12-month high/worst and average figures. The ETP Ratio calculates an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure as it relates to the Ask Price. This is achieved by dividing an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure (the financial liability accrued with respect to future scheduled maintenance events) by the aircraft's Ask Price.

    As the ETP Ratio decreases, the asset's value increases (in relation to the aircraft's price). ‘Days on Market’ analysis has shown that when the ETP Ratio is greater than 40%, a listed aircraft’s Days on the Market (DoM) increases, in many cases by more than 30%.

    During Q4 2020, aircraft whose ETP Ratio was 40% or greater were listed for sale 64% longer than assets with an ETP Ratio below 40% (277 days versus 454 days). How did each group fare during January?

    • Turboprops: For the fourteenth consecutive month, Turboprops registered the best/lowest ETP Ratio. January’s 39.8% was only marginally higher/worse than December’s 39.5%, and represented the group’s second consecutive month below the 40% excessive Maintenance Exposure point.
    • Large Jets: At 59.7%, the group maintained second position, and the figure was only 0.3% higher/worse than the 12-month low figure.
    • Mid-Size Jets: While better-than-average, and an improvement from December’s 71.8%, the group’s 70.9% ETP Ratio will create challenges for many sellers.
    • Light Jets: By posting a Ratio of 104.3% the group improved over December’s 106.8% record high figure. But that will not help most sellers.

    Excluding models whose ETP Ratio was over 200% during one of the previous two months (considered outliers), following is a breakdown of the business jet and turboprop models that fared the best and worst during January 2021.

    Click here to view the full report.

    This report was originally published in AvBuyer on February 18, 2021. 

  • NAFA Administrator posted an article
    Used Aircraft Maintenance & Marketability Analysis – December 2020 see more

    NAFA member, Tony Kioussis, President & CEO of Asset Insight, shares the latest Used Aircraft Maintenance & Marketability Analysis.

    Although 2020 had its challenges, the year closed with strong sales activity, and pre-owned inventory ended the year substantially below the June peak. Lower Ask Prices reflected the sellers’ desire to close deals before year-end, but which models were impacted the most? Tony Kioussis explores.

    Asset Insight’s December 31, 2020 market analysis of 134 fixed-wing models, and 1,912 aircraft listed for sale revealed the sixth consecutive monthly contraction (9.4%) of Asset Insight’s tracked inventory fleet. Which models were impacted the most, though...?

    While the statistics were mixed for the jet groups, ongoing buyer focus on lower quality assets (aircraft with more, and more costly, upcoming maintenance events) was evident for Turboprops.

    The overall Quality Rating came down from November’s 12-month 5.371 high (best) figure to 5.348, but ensured the inventory stayed within the ‘Excellent’ range for the entirety of 2020 (per Asset Insight’s scale of -2.5 to 10).

    December’s Aircraft Value Trends

    The tracked fleet’s average Ask Price decreased for a second consecutive month, after increasing three months in a row. The 4.7% December decrease equated to a 2.4% value reduction for Q4, and a 3.9% decrease for the calendar year. By aircraft group:

    • Large Jet average Ask Prices increased 0.8% during December, and 1.8% during Q4. However, the group’s Ask Price was down 11.9% for the calendar year.
    • Mid-Size Jet prices fell another 8.4% in December; 10.4% in Q4; and 6.4% for 2020.
    • Light Jet ask prices decreased 1.5% in December and 5.4% for Q4, but was the one group to post a gain for the year at 3.0%.
    • Turboprop ask prices lost another 0.7% in December, and, although up 0.6% during Q4, lost 1.5% during 2020 calendar year.

    December’s Fleet for Sale Trends

    Following its peak in June, Asset Insight’s tracked fleet has posted six consecutive monthly availability decreases (-63 units in December), and, Year-to-Date (YTD), inventory was down by 12.4% (270 units) compared with December 2019.

    • Large Jets: Inventory decreased 12.9% (64 units), ending the year with the exact same inventory figure as for December 2019.
    • Mid-Size Jets: Recorded a 10.8% decrease (63 units), ending 2020 with a 20.9% decrease (138 units).
    • Light Jets: Inventory decreased for the sixth consecutive month, this time 6.6% (39 units), leading to a YTD inventory decrease of 13.9% (89 units).
    • Turboprop: Through its fifth consecutive monthly decrease, the group’s inventory decreased 7.5% in December (33 units), resulting in a YTD decrease of 9.6% (43 units).

    December’s Maintenance Exposure Trends

    Buyer focus on jets with lower levels of Maintenance Exposure (an aircraft’s accumulated/embedded maintenance expense) raised/worsened figures for the remaining inventory. Meanwhile, turboprop buyers clearly focused on lower Quality assets, possibly due to their price. The resulting figures, by group, were as follows…

    • Large Jets: Worsened/increased 1.2% during December to a figure slightly worse than the 12-month average (as well as 3.7% YoY).
    • Mid-Size Jets: Rose 0.5% to a figure only slightly better/lower than the 12-month high/worst value, although the group’s YoY figure improved by 4.0%.
    • Light Jets: Worsened/increased another 2.5% to post the group’s 12-month worst/highest value, while concurrently worsening the YoY figure by a massive 46.4%.
    • Turboprops: Improved an additional 1.9% to post the group’s third consecutive 12-month low/best figure, while recording a Maintenance Exposure decrease/improvement of 17.7% during the year.

    December’s ETP Ratio Trend

    The overall tracked inventory’s ETP Ratio worsened/increased to 72.8%, only one point better than the 12-month worst/high figure. It compares negatively with October’s 69.8% and November’s 70.1% lower figures.

    The ETP Ratio calculates an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure as it relates to the Ask Price. This is achieved by dividing an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure (the financial liability accrued with respect to future scheduled maintenance events) by the aircraft's Ask Price.

    As the ETP Ratio decreases, the asset's value increases (in relation to the aircraft's price). ‘Days on Market’ analysis has shown that when the ETP Ratio is greater than 40%, a listed aircraft’s Days on the Market (DoM) increases, in many cases by more than 30%.

    During Q4 2020, aircraft whose ETP Ratio was 40% or greater were listed for sale 64% longer than assets with an ETP Ratio below 40% (277 days versus 454 days). How did each group fare during December?

    • Turboprops: For the past 13 months, Turboprops have registered the best/lowest ETP Ratio. In December, the group’s 39.5% (its fourth consecutive best 12-month Ratio) represented the first time in years that any group posted a figure below the 40% excessive Maintenance Exposure point.
    • Large Jets: Maintaining second position with an ETP Ratio of 61.0% – yet again better/lower than the group’s 12-month average – the Large Jets’ ETP Ratio was, nevertheless, worse than November’s 59.4%.
    • Mid-Size Jets: Posting a better-than-average figure, the Mid-Size Jets’ ETP still rose/worsened to 71.8% from October’s 12-month low/best 68.9% and November’s 69.0%.
    • Light Jets: Continued making history by registering a second consecutive record high/worst figure, this time 106.8%, compared to November’s 102%.

    Excluding models whose ETP Ratio was over 200% during one of the previous two months (considered outliers), following is a breakdown of the business jet and turboprop models that fared the best and worst during December 2020.

    Click here to read the full report.

    This report was originally published by AvBuyer on January 20, 2021.

  • NAFA Administrator posted an article
    Extended Downtime? How to Maintain Your Jet see more

    NAFA member, George Kleros, Sr. Vice President, Strategic Event Management & Fleet Support at JSSI, discusses COVID-19's impact on the economy, flight department extended downtime, and the maintenance needs of business aircraft.

    If you are one of the flight departments anticipating some extended downtime, following are some areas to give attention to regarding the day-to-day maintenance needs of your aircraft...

    As we begin to consider what the new normal entails on the other side of the coronavirus crisis, it’s clear this will not be an instantaneous recovery for Business Aviation. However, it’s unlikely we will see a return to what we experienced in 2009, one of the most difficult years our industry has ever faced.

    In recent weeks JSSI has been performing claims oversite for insurance underwriters in addition to appraisals, lease returns and aircraft default recoveries for financial institutions.

    Based on the cases we have seen so far, it is apparent that many similar issues that occurred in 2009 have resurfaced.

    For example, although they may not intend to immediately sell their aircraft, many owners have no plans to fly for the foreseeable future, and the overarching behavior at this time is to severely reduce expenses wherever possible.

    There are several important factors to consider when making the decision to cut operating costs and pause aircraft utilization. Here are five areas you should consider as part of financially responsible decision-making during a period of extended downtime.

    Aircraft Inactivity Choices

    When an aircraft sits unused, you have two choices:

    1. Exercise the aircraft, or
    2. Preserve the aircraft.

    In the short-term, exercising the aircraft is going to represent better value for money. Proper preservation of the engines, avionics, APU and airframe requires an extensive, labor-intensive process that involves special equipment to perform correctly.

    Furthermore, several preservation steps will need to reoccur periodically throughout the downtime for certain items.

    At some point, there will be a need to fly the aircraft again, or there may be an opportunity to sell the asset which will require a quick turn to return to airworthiness.

    The process to take an aircraft out of preservation is equally extensive and requires additional labor hours because of all the operational checks involved. The complex process makes sense if you plan to store the aircraft for more than six months, but it is not cost-effective for anything less than that.

    In addition, taking steps to exercise the aircraft will help ensure all systems are working correctly and any issues can be addressed as and when they are discovered, not at the last minute.

    Inspections Remain Necessary

    When an aircraft is parked, it is obviously not accumulating hours or landings. This means hourly or landing-driven inspections are no longer accomplished because they are not due.

    Despite this, it is still highly recommended to keep up with all scheduled calendar inspection events. These are in place for several important reasons, including to control corrosion and keep parts lubricated to prevent future damage.

    The inspection of particular areas of the aircraft at specific intervals is pre-determined by OEM engineers and is based on their findings that a potential issue is most likely to surface within that period. Timely corrective action will allow for the issue to be resolved as efficiently as possible.

    It should also be noted that performing inspections too early might mean missing an underlying problem that is not yet serious enough to be detected and treated. 

    Waiting until the next time the inspection is required may then put you past the critical point, ultimately requiring extensive repairs and special engineering that may contribute to a loss in aircraft value.

    On the other hand, choosing to push the inspection out beyond the scheduled time could lead to the same scenario and extensive damage being incurred from not addressing the problem sooner. This is especially true for aircraft that spend most days outside on the ramp.

    It is therefore highly important to follow the Chapter 5 calendar schedule and always remain within the designed inspection schedule for your specific aircraft.

    Click here to read the full article.

    This article was originally published by AvBuyer on May 11, 2020.

  • NAFA Administrator posted an article
    Asset Insight Podcast:CorporateCare Enhanced, Technology and Digital Advancements from Rolls-Royce see more

    NAFA member, Andy Robinson, Senior Vice President Services & Customer Support for Rolls-Royce North America discusses the company’s CorporateCare Program, as well at the company’s technology and digital advancements with host and NAFA member Asset Insight's Anthony Kioussis.

    Specific topics covered include:

    • The importance of an engine Program and the true value of CorporateCare.
    • What led Rolls-Royce to upgrade CorporateCare to Corporate Enhanced?
    • The additional benefits now offered by CorporateCare Enhanced.
    • Technology and digital advancements made by Rolls-Royce, in 2020, and what the industry should expect to see in 2021.
    • Electronic Engine Health Monitoring – how it works and why it is important.
    • Virtual Training, and how it is improving customer support.
    • Sustainable Aviation Fuel, and where does Rolls-Royce stand in this initiative.

    Click here to listen to the podcast.

    This podcast was originally published by Asset Insight, Season 1, Episode 28.

  • NAFA Administrator posted an article
    Used Aircraft Maintenance Analysis – November 2020 see more

    NAFA member, Tony Kioussis, President and CEO of Asset Insight, shares the latest Used Aircraft Maintenance Analysis for November 2020.  

    November’s market statistics demonstrated the traditional Q4 buying frenzy, with availability of pre-owned inventory, and Ask Prices decreasing. Which models were impacted the most?  

    Strong sales figures were evidenced by Asset Insight’s November 30, 2020 market analysis of 134 fixed-wing models, and 2,111 aircraft listed for sale. The analysis revealed a fifth consecutive monthly contraction (-2.9%) of Asset Insight’s tracked inventory fleet.

    The continued buyer focus in all groups except for Light Jets was on lower quality assets (i.e. aircraft with more upcoming maintenance events), helping to improve the inventory fleet’s Quality Rating to set another 12-month high (best) figure (5.371). The asset quality was, thus, further propelled into the ‘Excellent’ range for all of 2020, on Asset Insight’s scale of -2.5 to 10.

    November’s Aircraft Value Trends

    The tracked fleet’s average Ask Price decreased for the first time in three months, but only by 0.9% (following October’s 12-month high figure). The Year-to-Date (YTD) Ask Price increase is now 0.8%. By aircraft group:

    • Large Jets: Average Ask Price registered a 3.4% decrease in November, worsening the YTD loss to 12.7%;
    • Mid-Size Jets: Pricing decreased 1.6% in November, but was still up 2.1% in 2020;
    • Light Jets: Posted another decrease in November, this time 3.0%, lowering the group’s YTD gain to 4.6%; and
    • Turboprops: Lost 1.7% for November, dropping the YTD figure 0.8% into negative territory.

    November’s Fleet for Sale Trends

    With Asset Insight’s tracked fleet posting its fifth consecutive monthly decrease in availability (-63 units), YTD inventory was down by 3.3% (-71 units) compared with December 2019.

    • Large Jets: Inventory increased 0.4% (two units), and is currently up 14.8% since December 2019 (64 units).
    • Mid-Size Jets: Inventory for the second consecutive month posted the largest unit decrease among the four groups with a 3.9% reduction of 24 units. That represented a fifth consecutive monthly reduction, and Mid-Size Jet inventory is now down 11.4% YTD (75 units).
    • Light Jets: Inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive month. November’s decrease was 3.3% (20 units), contributing to a YTD inventory decrease of 7.8% (50 units).
    • Turboprop: By posting its fourth consecutive monthly decrease, Turboprop inventory decreased by 4.6% in November (21 units), while, YTD, inventory had fallen 2.2% (10 units).

    November’s Maintenance Exposure Trends

    Buyer focus on assets with more upcoming maintenance events (lower Quality Rating) had an unexpectedly positive impact on Maintenance Exposure (an aircraft’s accumulated/embedded maintenance expense) for all but the Light Jet category.

    The resulting figures, by group, were as follows:

    • Large Jets: Improved/Decreased another 0.3% during November to a figure better than the 12-month average.
    • Mid-Size Jets: Improved by 1.4% to post a 12-month low/best figure.
    • Light Jets: Worsened/Increased 3.1% to post the group’s 12-month worst/highest value.
    • Turboprops: Improved an additional 1.1% to post the group’s second consecutive 12-month low/best figure.

    November’s ETP Ratio Trend

    The tracked inventory’s ETP Ratio worsened/increased to 70.1%, which was slightly worse than the 12-month average. It compares negatively with October’s 69.8% figure.

    The ETP Ratio calculates an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure as it relates to the Ask Price. This is achieved by dividing an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure (the financial liability accrued with respect to future scheduled maintenance events) by the aircraft's Ask Price.

    As the ETP Ratio decreases, the asset's value increases (in relation to the aircraft's price). ‘Days on Market’ analysis has shown that when the ETP Ratio is greater than 40%, a listed aircraft’s Days on the Market (DoM) increases, in many cases by more than 30%.

    During Q3 2020, aircraft whose ETP Ratio was 40% or greater were listed for sale 50% longer than assets with an ETP Ratio below 40% (269 days versus 404 days). How did each group fare during November?

    • Turboprops: For the past twelve months, Turboprops have registered the best/lowest ETP Ratio, and November’s 40.6% was the group’s third consecutive best 12-month Ratio.
    • Large Jets: Came second with an ETP Ratio of 59.4% - better than the group’s 12-month average, and an improvement over October’s 61.8%.
    • Mid-Size Jets: Rose very slightly to 69.0% from October’s 12-month low/best 68.9%, but the group has registered quite an improvement YTD from January’s 87.4%.
    • Light Jets: Posted a record high/worst figure at 102%, primarily due to buyer preference for higher quality aircraft. That testifies to a different acquisition thought process than buyers in the other three groups.

    Excluding models whose ETP Ratio was over 200% during one of the previous two months (considered outliers), following is a breakdown of the business jet and turboprop models that fared the best and worst during November 2020.

    Read full report here

    This Asset Insight report was published by AvBuyer on December 17, 2020.

  • NAFA Administrator posted an article
    Used Aircraft Maintenance Analysis – September 2020 see more

    Asset Insight’s September 30, 2020 market analysis of 134 fixed-wing models, and 2,247 aircraft listed for sale, revealed the highest quarterly sales figure for the year while concurrently decreasing the tracked inventory fleet for a third consecutive month, this time by 1.5%.

    Buyer preference for higher-quality assets decreased the tracked fleet’s Quality Rating while raising (worsening) Maintenance Exposure to a 12-month high (worst) figure. However, September’s fleet ‘for sale’ Quality Rating (5.293), though below August’s 5.329, equaled July’s figure, maintaining the tracked fleet’s ‘Excellent’ range YTD on a scale of -2.5 to 10.

    September’s Aircraft Value Trends

    The average Ask Price increased 1.5% in September to a figure approaching the 12-month high level, thereby lowering the year’s average pricing reduction to 1.6%. By aircraft group:

    • Large Jets: The only group to post lower prices during September (1.5%) and Q3 (4.3%), Large Jets and are now down 13.5% for the year.
    • Medium Jets: Ask Pricing increased 5.5% in September, 10.1% during Q3, and the group’s figure is up 4.4% in 2020.
    • Small Jets: Pricing rose 2.2% in September, but recorded no change for Q3. Small Jet prices are up 8.8% YTD.
    • Turboprops: Ask Prices rose 0.3% in September and 3.1% during Q3, but are still down 2.1% during 2020.

    September’s Fleet for Sale Trends

    Asset Insight’s tracked fleet’s total number of aircraft listed for sale decreased a further 1.5% in September (34 units), resulting in a YTD inventory increase of 3.0% (65 units).

    • Large Jet Inventory: Increased yet again – this time by 2.2% (11 units) – and is now up 18.1% (78 units), YTD.
    • Medium Jet Inventory: Availability decreased for the third consecutive month, down 1.4% (nine units) and inventory is now down YTD by 4.2% (28 units).
    • Small Jet Inventory: Posted the largest decrease among the four groups for the second consecutive month. September’s decrease of 3.5% (23 units) contributes towards a 1.6% lower inventory for the year (10 units).
    • Turboprop Inventory: Posting only its second monthly decrease since January, the group’s inventory fell 2.7% (13 units) thereby lowering its YTD increase to 5.6% (25 units).

    September’s Maintenance Exposure Trends

    Maintenance Exposure (an aircraft’s accumulated/embedded maintenance expense) worsened/increased 3.3% in September (6.4% during Q3), to $1.464m, a clear signal to buyers that upcoming maintenance expense for the now-available inventory mix will be higher. Maintenance Exposure worsened (increased) for all four groups in September.

    • Large Jets: Worsened by 3.0% for the month for a total Q3 increase of 3.3%. That brings Maintenance Exposure above the 12-month average.
    • Medium Jets: Worsened 1.2% during September, and rose 1.3% across Q3. Nevertheless the figure was better than the 12-month average.
    • Small Jets: Increased 2.0% for the month while skyrocketing 14.6% during Q3 to a figure only marginally better than the group’s 12-month worst.
    • Turboprops: The only group to post a Q3 improvement (3.0%), Turboprops nevertheless degraded during September by 1.3% to a figure marginally worse than August’s 12-month low (best) figure.

    September’s ETP Ratio Trend

    The tracked inventory’s ETP Ratio rose/worsened to 73.7%, from August’s 70.9%, to post a new record high figure. [The ETP Ratio calculates an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure as it relates to the Ask Price. This is achieved by dividing an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure (the financial liability accrued with respect to future scheduled maintenance events) by the aircraft's Ask Price.]

    As the ETP Ratio decreases, the asset's value increases (in relation to the aircraft's price). ‘Days on Market’ analysis has shown that when the ETP Ratio is greater than 40%, a listed aircraft’s Days on the Market (DoM) increases, in many cases by more than 30%.

    During Q3 2020, aircraft whose ETP Ratio was 40% or greater were listed for sale 50% longer than assets with an ETP Ratio below 40% (269 days versus 404 days). How did each group fare during September?

    • Turboprops: For the tenth consecutive month, Turboprops posted the lowest (best) ETP Ratio, 41.6%, to achieve a new 12-month best (low) figure.
    • Medium Jets: Fell in step with a 12-month low figure of their own, at 70.9%. However, that is likely to create few additional opportunities for most sellers.
    • Large Jets: Set a record high (worst) figure, posting a Ratio of 74.1%.
    • Small Jets: Nearly eclipsed their record worst Ratio of 101.7%, registering a 12-month high 100.3%.

    Excluding models whose ETP Ratio was over 200% during one of the previous two months (considered outliers), following is a breakdown of the business jet and turboprop models that fared the best and worst during September 2020.

    Most Improved Models

    All six ‘Most Improved’ models in September posted a Maintenance Exposure decrease (improvement). The Beechcraft Premier 1, Beechcraft King Air C90, and Cessna Citation VII posted Ask Price decreases of $15,629, $2,536, and $42,500, respectively, while the Bombardier Learjet 36A registered no Ask Price change.

    The remaining two models experienced the following price increases:

    • Dassault Falcon 2000: +$417,784
    • Bombardier Learjet 40XR: +$125,833

    Beechcraft Premier 1

    Top position for September was captured by the Premier 1, which posted a Maintenance Exposure decrease approaching $185k that more than cancelled out the model’s Ask Price loss approaching $16k.

    The inventory fleet mix saw one unit sell during September, one addition to the fleet, and one withdrawal from the ‘for sale’ pool. That left 20 assets listed ‘for sale’, or 16.8% of the active fleet.

    With a very high percentage of these aircraft enrolled on an engine Hourly Cost Maintenance Program (HCMP), that tool is not a useful differentiator for sellers. With an ETP Ratio exceeding 83% little other than price is likely to capture a buyer’s attention.

    Dassault Falcon 2000

    One of only two aircraft on the Most Improved list to post an Ask Price increase in September, the Falcon 2000 took second place, having also achieved a Maintenance Exposure decrease $136k.

    Two aircraft transacted in September, and when all of the jostling ended (including five additions to the inventory fleet), 27 aircraft were available to buyers. That equates to 12.1% of the active fleet and, keeping in mind the model’s 72.7% ETP Ratio, HCMP coverage may be the only value lever that some operators have to distinguish their asset.

    Seller Advice: Those whose aircraft are not enrolled on an engine HCMP are advised to carefully consider all offers as this model sports engines with significant overhaul costs.

    Bombardier Learjet 36A

    A model that posted no transactions in September, along with no change in Ask Price, the Learjet 36A is next on the ‘Most Improved’ list, thanks to a Maintenance Exposure decrease approaching $81k.

    However, with an ETP Ratio exceeding 175%, sellers of the four assets listed for sale must be open to all offers, even though the inventory level amounts to only 10.8% of the active fleet.

    Beechcraft King Air C90

    Four King Air C90s transacted during September, while another was withdrawn from the listed fleet. The 43-aircraft inventory that remained equated to 11.1% of the active fleet. The problem for sellers is tri-fold:

    • First, the model’s ETP Ratio stands at 114.5% (well above the problematic 40% point).
    • Second, few of these aircraft have engine HCMP coverage, limiting leverage as a discriminator.
    • Third, while Maintenance Exposure decreased over $49k, Ask Prices also decreased.

    Although this aircraft moved from August’s ‘Most Deteriorated’ list to September’s ‘Most Improved’, the facts do not really favor sellers. Buyers, on the other hand, have ample choice.

    Cessna Citation VII

    The single transaction in September, along with one withdrawal from inventory, allowed the remaining 19 aircraft listed for sale (16.7% of the active fleet) to join the ‘Most Improved’ list. Maintenance Exposure decreased nearly $156k, a figure that eclipsed an Ask Price decrease of $42.5k.

    However, the model’s ETP Ratio of nearly 73% poses a significant challenge for sellers, except, perhaps, for some whose aircraft are enrolled on engine HCMP.

    Bombardier Learjet 40XR

    The final aircraft on the ‘Most Improved’ list occupied the ‘Most Deteriorated’ list in August. A Maintenance Exposure decrease approaching $94k, and an Ask Price increase approaching $126k were what made this possible.

    No Learjet 40XRs transacted in September, and the 13 inventory assets represent 14.1% of the active fleet. While availability exceeding 10% generally favors buyers, the model’s ETP Ratio, at 58.4%, can be favorably and sufficiently adjusted by engine HCMP coverage to help many sellers.

    Read the full report here.  

    This report was originally published by AvBuyer on October 14, 2020.

  • NAFA Administrator posted an article
    Used Aircraft Maintenance Analysis – August 2020 see more

    NAFA member, Tony Kioussis, President of Asset Insight, shares the August 31, 2020 market analysis revealing a second consecutive monthly inventory decrease to the tracked business aircraft fleet, along with a 2.1% Ask Price increase.

    As August ended, Asset Insight’s tracked fleet of 134 fixed-wing models and 2,281 aircraft listed for sale equated to a 2.1% inventory fleet decrease compared to July, reducing the year-to-date (YTD) increase to 4.5%...

    Moreover, the tracked fleet’s Quality Rating increased 0.7%, posting a 12-month best figure, and the latest ‘for sale’ fleet mix registered a 0.2% decrease to the anticipated cost for upcoming maintenance events. August’s 5.329 Quality Rating moved the inventory further into the ‘Excellent’ range on Asset Insight’s scale of -2.5 to 10.

    August’s Aircraft Value Trends

    The average Ask Price increased 2.1% in August, reducing the tracked fleet’s value decline since the start of 2020 to 3.0%. By aircraft group, the figures were as follows:

    • Large Jets: Posted a 0.4% reduction, for a YTD loss of 12.2%.
    • Medium Jets: The only group posting an Ask Price increase in August, pricing rose another 2.8% to bring the YTD loss down to 1.1%.
    • Small Jets: The one group to hold a YTD price increase, Small Jet prices were down 2.5%, reducing their increase for the year to 6.5%.
    • Turboprops: Ask Prices were down a nominal 0.1% in August, and are now off by 2.5% for 2020.

    August’s Fleet for Sale Trends

    The tracked fleet’s total number of aircraft listed for sale decreased 2.1% in August (50 units), reflecting a YTD inventory increase reduction to 4.5% (99 units).

    • Large Jet Inventory: Increased by 0.6% (three units) and is now up 15.5% (67 units) YTD.
    • Medium Jet Inventory: Availability once again decreased by another 3.0% (20 units) and inventory is now down YTD by 2.9% (19 units).
    • Small Jet Inventory: Posted the largest decrease this month among the four groups, 4.1% (28 units), and is now up 2.0% YTD (13 units).
    • Turboprop Inventory: The group posted its first monthly decrease since January, dropping 1.0% of its inventory (five units) to maintain a YTD increase of 8.4% (38 units.

    August’s Maintenance Exposure Trends

    Maintenance Exposure (an aircraft’s accumulated/embedded maintenance expense) decreased (improved) a nominal 0.2% in August to $1.416m, signaling upcoming maintenance for the latest fleet mix would be marginally lower. All four groups posted improvements (decrease) in August, including…

    • Large Jets: A 0.7% improvement, the figure remained better than the group’s 12-month average.
    • Medium Jets: A 0.6% improvement, virtually tying with the group’s best (lowest) 12-month figure.
    • Small Jets: A 2.6% gain, improving from July’s 12-month worst (high) figure.
    • Turboprops: A 0.7%improvement, posting the group’s second consecutive 12-month low (best) figure.

    August’s ETP Ratio Trend

    The inventory’s ETP Ratio fell (improved) to 70.9%, from July’s 71.2%, bringing the tracked fleet to a figure half way between its 12-month worst and average figures.

    The ETP Ratio calculates an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure as it relates to the Ask Price. This is achieved by dividing an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure (the financial liability accrued with respect to future scheduled maintenance events) by the aircraft's Ask Price.

    As the ETP Ratio decreases, the asset's value increases (in relation to the aircraft's price). ‘Days on Market’ analysis has shown that when the ETP Ratio is greater than 40%, a listed aircraft’s Days on the Market (DoM) increases, in many cases by more than 30%.

    During Q2 2020, aircraft whose ETP Ratio was 40% or greater were listed for sale nearly 53% longer than assets with an ETP Ratio below 40% (251 days versus 384 days). How did each group fare during August?

    • Turboprops: For a ninth consecutive month, Turboprops achieved the lowest ETP Ratio at 41.8%, unchanged from July’s 12-month low/best figure.
    • Large Jets: Worsened for the first time in four months, posting 63.2% (versus July’s 61.4%).
    • Medium Jets: Captured third place, improving to 71.7% from July’s 73.7%, a figure slightly worse/higher than the group’s 12-month average.
    • Small Jets: Posted the group’s second consecutive 12-month worst (highest) figure at 97.4%, further challenging sellers.

    Excluding models whose ETP Ratio was over 200% during one of the previous two months (considered outliers), following is a breakdown of the business jet and turboprop models that fared the best and worst during August 2020.

    Most Improved Business Aircraft for August 2020, according to Asset Insight

    Most Improved Models

    All six ‘Most Improved’ models posted a Maintenance Exposure decrease (improvement). From an Ask Price perspective, the Citation CJ1 posted a $77,143 Ask Price decrease, while the Gulfstream GIV-SP (operated under MSG3 maintenance rules) had no Ask Price change. The remaining models experienced the following price increases:

    • Dassault Falcon 50 (+$157,143)
    • Bombardier Learjet 40 (+$402,500)
    • Gulfstream GIV (+$27,389)
    • Beechcraft King Air 300 (+$237,167)

    Dassault Falcon 50

    Capturing August’s top position among the ‘Most Improved’ models is the Falcon 50. Two aircraft transacted during August, two were withdrawn from inventory, and one was added to create the current mix of 20 units (10.8% of the active fleet).

    Potential buyers need to keep in mind that these assets are now between 25 and 42 years of age. While the model made this list through a Maintenance Exposure decrease approaching $204k, along with an Ask Price increase exceeding $157k, the aircraft’s ETP Ratio, exceeding 98% should not be surprising.

    However, for assets whose engines are enrolled on an Hourly Cost Maintenance Program (HCMP), the Falcon 50’s HCMP-Adjusted ETP Ratio (accounting for the program’s value) might well place the asset below the 40% excessive Maintenance Exposure reference point.

    Bombardier Learjet 40

    We saw no transactions for this model during August, but one aircraft did join the inventory bringing the total to three (7.9% of the active fleet). The Learjet 40 made this list through a Maintenance Exposure decrease exceeding $71k, and an Ask Price increase approaching $403k.

    However, a closer look shows that the recent addition to the inventory is priced nearly 54% higher than the other aircraft showing Ask Prices. Though placing the Learjet 40 on this list might not seem equitable, the figures don’t lie and Asset Insight’s analytics will always be objective.

    Bombardier Learjet 40 private jet flies over fields

    Cessna Citation CJ1

    Third on this month’s ‘Most Improved’ list is a model that posted one sale in August and saw one aircraft enter the ‘for sale’ mix, maintaining a pool of 20 units (10.3% of the active fleet).

    A Maintenance Exposure decrease exceeding $263k, along with an Ask Price increase of more than $77k earned the CJ1 its place on the list. The CJ1’s 50.3% ETP Ratio is surprisingly low for an aircraft aged between 15 and 20 years.

    Gulfstream GIV

    Next is a model that found itself in second worst position among July’s ‘Most Deteriorated’ group. Swapping to this list through a Maintenance Exposure decrease approaching $226k, and an Ask Price increase exceeding $23k, the GIV’s 171.5% will, nonetheless not improve most sellers’ challenges.

    As if that were not enough, three transactions in August, an addition to inventory, and one withdrawal from the available fleet still left 20 aircraft listed for sale (12.1% of the fleet). As we mentioned previously, at the age of 27 to 34 years, this aircraft is beginning to approach financial obsolescence, so buyers must consider whether they’re purchasing a low-priced asset or one posing good value.

    Gulfstream GIV-SP (MSG3)

    Dropping from the top of July’s ‘Most Improved’ list to fifth place on August’s list is an aircraft whose 44.5% ETP Ratio should allow ample opportunity for sellers to structure transactions of reasonable value. The model achieved its position through no change in Ask Price, no change in fleet composition, but a Maintenance Exposure decrease exceeding $683k.

    As August ended, five aircraft were listed for sale, equating to only 5.6% of the active fleet. Did we mention that sellers should have ample opportunities to structure transactions…? Buyers will have to justify their offer if they wish to achieve a good price for an MSG3 GIV-SP.

    Beechcraft King Air 300

    The final aircraft to make the ‘Most Improved’ list did so thanks to a Maintenance Exposure decrease approaching $9k and an Ask Price increase exceeding $237k. During August, Asset Insight identified three sales.

    With the 17 aircraft available to buy representing only 8.9% of the active fleet, the model’s strong following, and 48.1% ETP Ratio, the stage is set for buyers to structure value-based transactions that also provide good prices for sellers.

    Most Deteriorated Business Aircraft for August 2020, according to Asset Insight

    Most Deteriorated Models

    Four of the six models on August’s ‘Most Deteriorated’ list registered a Maintenance Exposure increase, while the Beechcraft King Air C90 posted an Ask Price increase of $4,008. The remaining models experienced the following price decreases:

    • Bombardier Challenger 601-3A (-$165,000)
    • Gulfstream G200 (-$377,667)
    • Bombardier Learjet 40XR (-$181,667)
    • Bombardier Learjet 45 w/APU (-$92,021)
    • Gulfstream G100 (-$197,500)

    Beechcraft King Air C90

    For the second consecutive month, the best aircraft among August’s ‘Most Deteriorated’ assets held the second-highest position on July’s ‘Most Improved’ list. The C90’s fall from grace was caused by a Maintenance Exposure increase exceeding $41k overshadowing a $4k Ask Price increase.

    Three aircraft sold in August, two joined the inventory, one was withdrawn from the available pool, and the remaining 46 aircraft equated to 11.9% of the active fleet for sale. This model has a strong following, but the average aircraft’s 124.2% ETP Ratio does not place sellers in a strong bargaining position.

    Bombardier Challenger 601-3A

    No stranger to this list, the CL601-3A recaptured a place in the ‘Most Deteriorated’ group thanks to a $169k Maintenance Exposure (would you believe) decrease along with a $165k Ask Price decrease.

    Two aircraft transacted in August and the 19 remaining ‘for sale’ units equate to 16.0% of the active fleet. With an ETP Ratio approaching 186%, sellers have few bargaining chips – even if the aircraft’s engines are enrolled on a HCMP.

    Gulfstream G200 private jet surrounded by clouds

    Gulfstream G200

    The third of four Gulfstreams occupying either list this month, the G200 posted one transaction during the month and three aircraft were withdrawn from the ‘for sale’ fleet. Still, that left 24 units available (10% of the active aircraft).

    The news for both buyers and sellers is quite positive: Sufficient selection exists for buyers to negotiate a deal with good value, while allowing sellers the opportunity to negotiate a reasonable selling price.

    The model posted a Maintenance Exposure increase exceeding $145k during August, along with an Ask Price decrease approaching $377k. With an ETP Ratio hovering around 54%, sellers with engines enrolled on a HCMP should see an adjusted ETP Ratio below 40%.

    Bombardier Learjet 40XR

    The second of three Learjets to occupy either of August’s lists attained its status through a Maintenance Exposure increase exceeding $64k and an Ask Price decrease approaching $182k. No aircraft transactions were recorded in August, but two assets joined the inventory increasing availability to 14.1% of the active fleet.

    With an ETP Ratio approaching 68%, sellers with aircraft whose engines are enrolled on a HCMP will have better opportunities to remarket their aircraft at a reasonable price, and in a reasonable timeframe.

    Bombardier Learjet 45XR (with APU)

    The Learjet 45XR (with APU) captured next to last place for some clear reasons. Its 76.3% ETP Ratio was caused by a Maintenance Exposure increase approaching $80k, along with an Ask Price decrease exceeding $92k.

    As if that will not pose substantial challenges for sellers, the one aircraft that transacted in August was replaced by three additions to inventory. The 23 units now available equate to 27.4% of the active fleet. If you’re trying to sell one of these assets, you should carefully consider any offers you receive.

    Gulfstream G100 flies over clear ocean

    Gulfstream G100

    Dead last on August’s ‘Most Deteriorated’ list was the G100, an asset whose 126.1% ETP Ratio was driven by a Maintenance Exposure decrease (no, that is not an error) exceeding $18k and an Ask Price decrease of $197.5k.

    It isn’t that a plethora of such aircraft are listed for sale, although the four in inventory (no sales in August) equate to 19.1% of the active fleet.

    The problem for sellers is the limited production (22 units) and age of these assets (14 to 19 years), placing them in a space where competitive aircraft are newer and often viewed as more efficient. The few buyers seeking these assets are most definitely in the driver’s seat.

    The Seller’s Challenge

    It is important to understand that the ETP Ratio has more to do with buyer and seller dynamics than it does with either the asset’s accrued maintenance or its price. For any aircraft, maintenance can accrue only so far before work must be completed.

    But as an aircraft’s value decreases, there will come a point when the accrued maintenance figure equates to more than 40% of the aircraft’s ask price. When a prospective buyer adjusts their offer to address this accrued maintenance, the figure is all-too-often considered unacceptable to the seller and a deal is not reached.

    It is not until an aircraft undergoes some major maintenance that a seller is sufficiently motivated to accept a lower figure, or a buyer is willing to pay a higher price and the aircraft transacts, ultimately.

    A wise seller needs to consider the potential marketability impact early maintenance might have on their aircraft, as well as its enrollment on an HCMP where more than half of their model’s in-service fleet is enrolled on one.

    Sellers also need to carefully weigh any offer from a prospective buyer against the loss in value of their aircraft for sale as the asset spends more days on the market awaiting a better offer, while simultaneously accruing a higher maintenance figure.

    More information from www.assetinsight.com.

    This article was originally published by AvBuyer on September 16, 2020.

  • NAFA Administrator posted an article
    Used Aircraft Maintenance Analysis – July 2020 see more

    NAFA member, Tony Kioussis, President of Asset Insight, shares Asset Insight’s July 2020 market analysis.

    Asset Insight's Juluy 31, 2020 market analysis revealed a 1.2% inventory decrease to the tracked business aircraft fleet – the first monthly reduction since January – along with an Ask Price decrease of 1.5%. Which models were impacted the most?

    As July ended, Asset Insight’s tracked fleet of 134 fixed-wing business aircraft, and 2,331 aircraft listed for sale equated to a 1.2% inventory fleet decrease compared to June, and a year-to-date (YTD) increase of 6.8%.

    The tracked fleet’s Quality Rating dipped a bit from June’s 12-month best figure, and the latest ‘for sale’ fleet mix increased the anticipated cost for upcoming maintenance events close to the 12-month high (worst) figure. However, July’s 5.293 Quality Rating kept the inventory within the ‘Excellent’ range on Asset Insight’s scale of -2.5 to 10.

    July’s Aircraft Value Trends

    Average Ask Price decreased 1.5% in July, leading to a 5.0% value decline since the start of 2020. By aircraft group, the figures were as follows:

    • Large Jets: This group fueled the loss with a reduction of 2.4%, and a total value loss during 2020 of 11.8%.
    • Medium Jets: Ask Prices increased 1.5% during July but were still down 3.7% YTD.
    • Small Jets: The group posted a 12-month high figure through a 0.3% gain in value and is now up 9.2% for the year.
    • Turboprops: Ask Prices gained 2.8% but are still off by 2.4% during 2020.

    July’s Fleet for Sale Trends

    The tracked fleet’s total number of aircraft listed for sale decreased 1.2% in July (29 units), reflecting a YTD inventory increase equating to 6.8% (149 units).

    • Large Jet Inventory: Decreased slightly by 0.4% (two units), but remains up 14.8% (64 units) YTD.
    • Medium Jet Inventory: Availability was down a substantial 2.7% (18 units) for July, bringing the YTD increase down to a single unit (0.2%).
    • Small Jet Inventory: Decreased 2.6% (18 units) in July but was still up 6.4% YTD (41 units).
    • Turboprop Inventory: The only group to post an increase, Turboprops were up 1.2% (nine units) for the month, and inventory has now grown 9.6% (43 units) YTD.

    July’s Maintenance Exposure Trends

    Maintenance Exposure (an aircraft’s accumulated/embedded maintenance expense) increased (deteriorated) 3.1% in July to $1.419m, signaling upcoming maintenance for the latest fleet mix would be close to the 12-month high (worst) figure. The last time our tracked fleet posted a higher (worse) Maintenance Exposure figure was in October 2019. Individual group results were as follows:

    • Large Jets: Worsened (increased) 1.0% for the month, but the figure was better than the group’s 12-month average.
    • Medium Jets: Worsened by 0.7%, but the figure was only slightly above (worse) than last month’s 12-month best number.
    • Small Jets: Suffered greatly from the reconstituted inventory, increasing 15.3% to set a 12-month worst (high) figure.
    • Turboprops: At the other end of the spectrum, Turboprops posted a 12-month low (best) figure through a 3.6% decrease.

    July’s ETP Ratio Trend

    The inventory’s ETP Ratio rose (worsened) to 71.2%, from June’s 69.9%, following three consecutive monthly improvements (decreases), bringing our tracked fleet to just below its worst (highest) 12-month figure.

    The ETP Ratio calculates an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure as it relates to the Ask Price. This is achieved by dividing an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure (the financial liability accrued with respect to future scheduled maintenance events) by the aircraft's Ask Price.

    As the ETP Ratio decreases, the asset's value increases (in relation to the aircraft's price). ‘Days on Market’ analysis has shown that when the ETP Ratio is greater than 40%, a listed aircraft’s Days on the Market (DoM) increases, in many cases by more than 30%.

    During Q2 2020, aircraft whose ETP Ratio was 40% or greater were listed for sale nearly 53% longer than assets with an ETP Ratio below 40% (251 days versus 384 days). How did each group fare during July?

    • Turboprops: For the eighth consecutive month, Turboprops registered the lowest ETP Ratio at 41.8%, a 12-month low (best) figure that continued earning them the top spot among the four groups.
    • Large Jets: Improved for the third straight month, this time to 61.4% from June’s 64.0%, thereby remaining in second place.
    • Medium Jets: Deteriorated (rose) slightly to 73.7% from June’s 73.4%, with the figure remaining better (lower) than the group’s 12-month average.
    • Small Jets: Made the environment for many sellers even more challenging through a Ratio increase to 96.5%, a 12-month high figure that was substantially worse than June’s 85.8%.

    Excluding models whose ETP Ratio was over 200% during one of the previous two months (considered outliers), following is a breakdown of the business jet and turboprop models that fared the best and worst during July 2020.

    Most Improved Business Jets and Turboprops - Asset Insight July 2020

    Most Improved Models

    All six ‘Most Improved’ models posted a Maintenance Exposure decrease (improvement). Ask Price, on the other hand, was not as uniform, with the Beechcraft King Air C90, Bombardier Global Express, and Cessna Citation II, posting decreases of $5,976, $101,143, and $23,789, respectively. The remaining models experienced the following price increases:

    • Gulfstream GIV-SP (MSG3): +$2,102,500
    • Dassault Falcon 50: +$84,286
    • Beechcraft King Air B200 (pre-2001): +$9,247

    Gulfstream GIV-SP (MSG3)

    Eclipsing all models in July is the one that occupied the ‘Most Deteriorated’ spot during our June analysis. It earned the top position through a Maintenance Exposure decrease exceeding $852k, along with an Ask Price increase exceeded $2.1m. But that does not bring visibility to the full story.

    There were two aircraft listed ‘for sale’ in June carrying Ask Prices. When the asset carrying an Ask Price approximately one-third lower than the remaining one sold, the figure naturally shifted dramatically.

    Still, there’s no getting around the model’s substantial improvement in Maintenance Exposure, derived through the single July transaction and three additions to inventory. With an ETP Ratio of 55%, and with inventory at only five units (5.6% of the active fleet), sellers should have some realistic opportunities to trade their aircraft, assuming price expectations are sensible.

    Beechcraft King Air C90

    Our research uncovered two aircraft trades in July, and the 47 units comprising the latest inventory mix equated to 12.1% of the active King Air C90 fleet – hardly the stuff of legend.

    While the model’s Maintenance Exposure decrease of $71k far exceeded its Ask Price reduction, the resulting 116.6% ETP Ratio does not hold much promise for sellers. Buyers, on the other hand, have their pick of the litter.

    Dassault Falcon 50

    Two units found new owners in July. The remaining inventory of 23 aircraft equated to 12.3% of the active fleet. While the ‘for sale’ fleet saw Maintenance Exposure decrease over $33k and Ask Price increase more than $84k, the resulting ETP Ratio still exceeded 126%.

    Although statistically deserving of its spot on the ‘Most Improved’ list, it is doubtful that sellers will experience a dramatic change in fortune although, for some buyers, this may still be the perfect solution for their geographic operating environment.

    Beechcraft King Air B200 (Pre-2001 Models)

    The second King Air model to occupy a spot on this month’s ‘Most Improved’ list definitely belongs here. Four units traded in July, and the 55 aircraft listed for sale create good selection for buyers, while sellers can benefit from availability only equating to 7.1% of the active fleet.

    The model’s ETP Ratio, at 46.2%, is also a great deal more conducive to deal-making and resulted from a Maintenance Exposure drop exceeding $70k and a slight Ask Price increase.

    Bombardier Global Express

    By no means a stranger to this list, the Global Express gained its position in July following a Maintenance Exposure decrease approaching $393k that was overshadowed an Ask Price decrease exceeding $101k.

    We did not record a sale during July, and the model’s 21 listed units equate to 14.6% of the active fleet. However, with an ETP Ratio of 67%, and considering the aircraft’s capabilities and industry following, sellers should have more opportunities than sellers of many other models posting such figures.

    Cessna Citation II

    Occupying the final slot on July’s ‘Most Improved’ list is a model whose constituents range in age from 25 to 42 years, and whose 83 inventory units equate to 16.5% of the active fleet. For buyers not afraid to become the final owner of an asset within the Small Jet range, the Citation II might be worth considering, as Ask Price fell nearly $24k in July while Maintenance Exposure improved (decreased) over $55k.

    Of course, the aircraft’s actual Maintenance Exposure could make your acquisition a bit more expensive that planned, considering the ETP Ratio stood at nearly 128% when last calculated.

    Most Deteriorated Business Jets and Turboprops - Asset Insight July 2020

    Most Deteriorated Models

    All six models on July’s ‘Most Deteriorated’ list registered a Maintenance Exposure increase. The Bombardier Learjet 36A posted no Ask Price change, while the remaining models experienced the following decreases:

    • Cessna Citation ISP: -$58,192
    • Bombardier Learjet 55: -$26,071
    • Gulfstream GIV-SP: -$348,000
    • Hawker Beechjet 40: -$75,000
    • Gulfstream GIV: -$11,111

    Cessna Citation ISP

    The best aircraft among July’s ‘Most Deteriorated’ assets held the second-highest position on June’s ‘Most Improved’ list. Its dramatic change in stature came from a $7k Maintenance Exposure increase, along with a $58k drop in Ask Price.

    As if the model’s 128.5% ETP Ratio posed an insufficient challenge for sellers, inventory stood at 20% of the active fleet (55 units) as we closed out July. Three aircraft did trade last month, but this model’s fleet is aged between 35 and 43 years of age, so prospective buyers need to keep in mind that any future resale is unlikely to generate a price much above salvage value.

    Bombardier Learjet 55

    First the good news: One asset transacted last month and we did not record any additions to the Learjet 55 inventory.

    Now the bad news: The 14 units listed for sale equate to 14.6% of the active fleet for an asset whose ETP Ratio is 188% (by virtue of Maintenance Exposure increase exceeding $55k and an Ask Price decrease of more than $26k).

    Ask Prices for this model range between just below $500k to just below $1.0m. For an aircraft aged 33 to 39 years, even the low end of the pricing spectrum will be challenging for sellers to achieve, unless they can effectively monetize their aircraft’s Maintenance Equity.

    Gulfstream GIV-SP

    Three transactions took place in July proving, yet again, this model’s strong following. However, with a Maintenance Exposure increase approaching $487k, along with an Ask Price decrease of $348k, the GIV-SP, unlike those operated under MSG3 Maintenance rules (see above), found its way onto the ‘Most Deteriorated’ list.

    While the 19 aircraft listed for sale represent only 9.1% of the active fleet, the model’s 97% ETP Ratio will make selling against its MSG3 brethren challenging for most existing owners, especially if the aircraft’s engines are not enrolled on an Hourly Cost Maintenance Program.

    Hawker Beechjet 400

    This 31 to 34-year-old model joined the ‘Most Deteriorated’ list having completed no transactions during July. It did so on its Maintenance Exposure weakness which increased (worsened) over $25k, along with a $75k reduction in Ask Price.

    Only four units are listed for sale. Unfortunately for sellers, that equates to 12.1% of the active fleet, while the model’s average ETP Ratio, at over 131%, equates to a challenging selling environment.

    Gulfstream GIV

    The third Gulfstream model to make either list finds itself in the second worst position among July’s ‘Most Deteriorated’ group.

    Two aircraft transacted in July to lower the number available for sale to 21 units (12.4% of the active fleet). Unfortunately, at the ripe old age of 27 to 34 years, this superb aircraft is beginning to reach its financial obsolescence through an ETP Ratio approaching 185%, due to a Maintenance Exposure increase exceeding $477k, along with another Ask Price reduction.

    Bombardier Learjet 36A

    With an ETP Ratio approaching 185%, and units that are as much as 44 years old, it is not difficult to understand why this model occupied the most deteriorated spot on July’s list. What might be surprising is that one aircraft did trade in July, and only four are listed for sale.

    Unfortunately, those listings equate to 10.8% of the active fleet whose Maintenance Exposure increased by more that $306k by virtue of the latest inventory mix.

    While air ambulance work has kept this model flying, it, too, is staring at financial obsolescence with some units probably already at that destination.

    The Seller’s Challenge

    It is important to understand that the ETP Ratio has more to do with buyer and seller dynamics than it does with either the asset’s accrued maintenance or its price. For any aircraft, maintenance can accrue only so far before work must be completed.

    But as an aircraft’s value decreases, there will come a point when the accrued maintenance figure equates to more than 40% of the aircraft’s ask price. When a prospective buyer adjusts their offer to address this accrued maintenance, the figure is all-too-often considered unacceptable to the seller and a deal is not reached.

    It is not until an aircraft undergoes some major maintenance that a seller is sufficiently motivated to accept a lower figure, or a buyer is willing to pay a higher price and the aircraft transacts, ultimately.

    A wise seller needs to consider the potential marketability impact early maintenance might have on their aircraft, as well as its enrollment on an HCMP where more than half of their model’s in-service fleet is enrolled on one.

    Sellers also need to carefully weigh any offer from a prospective buyer against the loss in value of their aircraft for sale as the asset spends more days on the market awaiting a better offer, while simultaneously accruing a higher maintenance figure.

    More information from www.assetinsight.com.

    This article was originally published by AvBuyer on August 14, 2020.

  • NAFA Administrator posted an article
    Used Aircraft Maintenance Analysis – July 2020 see more

    NAFA member, Tony Kioussis, President of Asset Insight, shares the latest used aircraft maintenance report.

    As July ended, Asset Insight’s tracked fleet of 134 fixed-wing business aircraft, and 2,331 aircraft listed for sale equated to a 1.2% inventory fleet decrease compared to June, and a year-to-date (YTD) increase of 6.8%.

    The tracked fleet’s Quality Rating dipped a bit from June’s 12-month best figure, and the latest ‘for sale’ fleet mix increased the anticipated cost for upcoming maintenance events close to the 12-month high (worst) figure. However, July’s 5.293 Quality Rating kept the inventory within the ‘Excellent’ range on Asset Insight’s scale of -2.5 to 10.

    July’s Aircraft Value Trends

    Average Ask Price decreased 1.5% in July, leading to a 5.0% value decline since the start of 2020. By aircraft group, the figures were as follows:

    • Large Jets: This group fueled the loss with a reduction of 2.4%, and a total value loss during 2020 of 11.8%.
    • Medium Jets: Ask Prices increased 1.5% during July but were still down 3.7% YTD.
    • Small Jets: The group posted a 12-month high figure through a 0.3% gain in value and is now up 9.2% for the year.
    • Turboprops: Ask Prices gained 2.8% but are still off by 2.4% during 2020.

    July’s Fleet for Sale Trends

    The tracked fleet’s total number of aircraft listed for sale decreased 1.2% in July (29 units), reflecting a YTD inventory increase equating to 6.8% (149 units).

    • Large Jet Inventory: Decreased slightly by 0.4% (two units), but remains up 14.8% (64 units) YTD.
    • Medium Jet Inventory: Availability was down a substantial 2.7% (18 units) for July, bringing the YTD increase down to a single unit (0.2%).
    • Small Jet Inventory: Decreased 2.6% (18 units) in July but was still up 6.4% YTD (41 units).
    • Turboprop Inventory: The only group to post an increase, Turboprops were up 1.2% (nine units) for the month, and inventory has now grown 9.6% (43 units) YTD.

    July’s Maintenance Exposure Trends

    Maintenance Exposure (an aircraft’s accumulated/embedded maintenance expense) increased (deteriorated) 3.1% in July to $1.419m, signaling upcoming maintenance for the latest fleet mix would be close to the 12-month high (worst) figure. The last time our tracked fleet posted a higher (worse) Maintenance Exposure figure was in October 2019. Individual group results were as follows:

    • Large Jets: Worsened (increased) 1.0% for the month, but the figure was better than the group’s 12-month average.
    • Medium Jets: Worsened by 0.7%, but the figure was only slightly above (worse) than last month’s 12-month best number.
    • Small Jets: Suffered greatly from the reconstituted inventory, increasing 15.3% to set a 12-month worst (high) figure.
    • Turboprops: At the other end of the spectrum, Turboprops posted a 12-month low (best) figure through a 3.6% decrease.

    July’s ETP Ratio Trend

    The inventory’s ETP Ratio rose (worsened) to 71.2%, from June’s 69.9%, following three consecutive monthly improvements (decreases), bringing our tracked fleet to just below its worst (highest) 12-month figure.

    The ETP Ratio calculates an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure as it relates to the Ask Price. This is achieved by dividing an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure (the financial liability accrued with respect to future scheduled maintenance events) by the aircraft's Ask Price.

    As the ETP Ratio decreases, the asset's value increases (in relation to the aircraft's price). ‘Days on Market’ analysis has shown that when the ETP Ratio is greater than 40%, a listed aircraft’s Days on the Market (DoM) increases, in many cases by more than 30%.

    During Q2 2020, aircraft whose ETP Ratio was 40% or greater were listed for sale nearly 53% longer than assets with an ETP Ratio below 40% (251 days versus 384 days). How did each group fare during July?

    • Turboprops: For the eighth consecutive month, Turboprops registered the lowest ETP Ratio at 41.8%, a 12-month low (best) figure that continued earning them the top spot among the four groups.
    • Large Jets: Improved for the third straight month, this time to 61.4% from June’s 64.0%, thereby remaining in second place.
    • Medium Jets: Deteriorated (rose) slightly to 73.7% from June’s 73.4%, with the figure remaining better (lower) than the group’s 12-month average.
    • Small Jets: Made the environment for many sellers even more challenging through a Ratio increase to 96.5%, a 12-month high figure that was substantially worse than June’s 85.8%.

    Excluding models whose ETP Ratio was over 200% during one of the previous two months (considered outliers), following is a breakdown of the business jet and turboprop models that fared the best and worst during July 2020.

    Most Improved Business Jets and Turboprops - Asset Insight July 2020

    Most Improved Models

    All six ‘Most Improved’ models posted a Maintenance Exposure decrease (improvement). Ask Price, on the other hand, was not as uniform, with the Beechcraft King Air C90, Bombardier Global Express, and Cessna Citation II, posting decreases of $5,976, $101,143, and $23,789, respectively. The remaining models experienced the following price increases:

    • Gulfstream GIV-SP (MSG3): +$2,102,500
    • Dassault Falcon 50: +$84,286
    • Beechcraft King Air B200 (pre-2001): +$9,247

    Gulfstream GIV-SP (MSG3)

    Eclipsing all models in July is the one that occupied the ‘Most Deteriorated’ spot during our June analysis. It earned the top position through a Maintenance Exposure decrease exceeding $852k, along with an Ask Price increase exceeded $2.1m. But that does not bring visibility to the full story.

    There were two aircraft listed ‘for sale’ in June carrying Ask Prices. When the asset carrying an Ask Price approximately one-third lower than the remaining one sold, the figure naturally shifted dramatically.

    Still, there’s no getting around the model’s substantial improvement in Maintenance Exposure, derived through the single July transaction and three additions to inventory. With an ETP Ratio of 55%, and with inventory at only five units (5.6% of the active fleet), sellers should have some realistic opportunities to trade their aircraft, assuming price expectations are sensible.

    Beechcraft King Air C90

    Our research uncovered two aircraft trades in July, and the 47 units comprising the latest inventory mix equated to 12.1% of the active King Air C90 fleet – hardly the stuff of legend.

    While the model’s Maintenance Exposure decrease of $71k far exceeded its Ask Price reduction, the resulting 116.6% ETP Ratio does not hold much promise for sellers. Buyers, on the other hand, have their pick of the litter.

    Dassault Falcon 50

    Two units found new owners in July. The remaining inventory of 23 aircraft equated to 12.3% of the active fleet. While the ‘for sale’ fleet saw Maintenance Exposure decrease over $33k and Ask Price increase more than $84k, the resulting ETP Ratio still exceeded 126%.

    Although statistically deserving of its spot on the ‘Most Improved’ list, it is doubtful that sellers will experience a dramatic change in fortune although, for some buyers, this may still be the perfect solution for their geographic operating environment.

    Beechcraft King Air B200 (Pre-2001 Models)

    The second King Air model to occupy a spot on this month’s ‘Most Improved’ list definitely belongs here. Four units traded in July, and the 55 aircraft listed for sale create good selection for buyers, while sellers can benefit from availability only equating to 7.1% of the active fleet.

    The model’s ETP Ratio, at 46.2%, is also a great deal more conducive to deal-making and resulted from a Maintenance Exposure drop exceeding $70k and a slight Ask Price increase.

    Bombardier Global Express

    By no means a stranger to this list, the Global Express gained its position in July following a Maintenance Exposure decrease approaching $393k that was overshadowed an Ask Price decrease exceeding $101k.

    We did not record a sale during July, and the model’s 21 listed units equate to 14.6% of the active fleet. However, with an ETP Ratio of 67%, and considering the aircraft’s capabilities and industry following, sellers should have more opportunities than sellers of many other models posting such figures.

    Cessna Citation II

    Occupying the final slot on July’s ‘Most Improved’ list is a model whose constituents range in age from 25 to 42 years, and whose 83 inventory units equate to 16.5% of the active fleet. For buyers not afraid to become the final owner of an asset within the Small Jet range, the Citation II might be worth considering, as Ask Price fell nearly $24k in July while Maintenance Exposure improved (decreased) over $55k.

    Of course, the aircraft’s actual Maintenance Exposure could make your acquisition a bit more expensive that planned, considering the ETP Ratio stood at nearly 128% when last calculated.

    Most Deteriorated Business Jets and Turboprops - Asset Insight July 2020

    Most Deteriorated Models

    All six models on July’s ‘Most Deteriorated’ list registered a Maintenance Exposure increase. The Bombardier Learjet 36A posted no Ask Price change, while the remaining models experienced the following decreases:

    • Cessna Citation ISP: -$58,192
    • Bombardier Learjet 55: -$26,071
    • Gulfstream GIV-SP: -$348,000
    • Hawker Beechjet 40: -$75,000
    • Gulfstream GIV: -$11,111

    Cessna Citation ISP

    The best aircraft among July’s ‘Most Deteriorated’ assets held the second-highest position on June’s ‘Most Improved’ list. Its dramatic change in stature came from a $7k Maintenance Exposure increase, along with a $58k drop in Ask Price.

    As if the model’s 128.5% ETP Ratio posed an insufficient challenge for sellers, inventory stood at 20% of the active fleet (55 units) as we closed out July. Three aircraft did trade last month, but this model’s fleet is aged between 35 and 43 years of age, so prospective buyers need to keep in mind that any future resale is unlikely to generate a price much above salvage value.

    Bombardier Learjet 55

    First the good news: One asset transacted last month and we did not record any additions to the Learjet 55 inventory.

    Now the bad news: The 14 units listed for sale equate to 14.6% of the active fleet for an asset whose ETP Ratio is 188% (by virtue of Maintenance Exposure increase exceeding $55k and an Ask Price decrease of more than $26k).

    Ask Prices for this model range between just below $500k to just below $1.0m. For an aircraft aged 33 to 39 years, even the low end of the pricing spectrum will be challenging for sellers to achieve, unless they can effectively monetize their aircraft’s Maintenance Equity.

    Gulfstream GIV-SP

    Three transactions took place in July proving, yet again, this model’s strong following. However, with a Maintenance Exposure increase approaching $487k, along with an Ask Price decrease of $348k, the GIV-SP, unlike those operated under MSG3 Maintenance rules (see above), found its way onto the ‘Most Deteriorated’ list.

    While the 19 aircraft listed for sale represent only 9.1% of the active fleet, the model’s 97% ETP Ratio will make selling against its MSG3 brethren challenging for most existing owners, especially if the aircraft’s engines are not enrolled on an Hourly Cost Maintenance Program.

    Hawker Beechjet 400

    This 31 to 34-year-old model joined the ‘Most Deteriorated’ list having completed no transactions during July. It did so on its Maintenance Exposure weakness which increased (worsened) over $25k, along with a $75k reduction in Ask Price.

    Only four units are listed for sale. Unfortunately for sellers, that equates to 12.1% of the active fleet, while the model’s average ETP Ratio, at over 131%, equates to a challenging selling environment.

    Gulfstream GIV

    The third Gulfstream model to make either list finds itself in the second worst position among July’s ‘Most Deteriorated’ group.

    Two aircraft transacted in July to lower the number available for sale to 21 units (12.4% of the active fleet). Unfortunately, at the ripe old age of 27 to 34 years, this superb aircraft is beginning to reach its financial obsolescence through an ETP Ratio approaching 185%, due to a Maintenance Exposure increase exceeding $477k, along with another Ask Price reduction.

    Bombardier Learjet 36A

    With an ETP Ratio approaching 185%, and units that are as much as 44 years old, it is not difficult to understand why this model occupied the most deteriorated spot on July’s list. What might be surprising is that one aircraft did trade in July, and only four are listed for sale.

    Unfortunately, those listings equate to 10.8% of the active fleet whose Maintenance Exposure increased by more that $306k by virtue of the latest inventory mix.

    While air ambulance work has kept this model flying, it, too, is staring at financial obsolescence with some units probably already at that destination.

    The Seller’s Challenge

    It is important to understand that the ETP Ratio has more to do with buyer and seller dynamics than it does with either the asset’s accrued maintenance or its price. For any aircraft, maintenance can accrue only so far before work must be completed.

    But as an aircraft’s value decreases, there will come a point when the accrued maintenance figure equates to more than 40% of the aircraft’s ask price. When a prospective buyer adjusts their offer to address this accrued maintenance, the figure is all-too-often considered unacceptable to the seller and a deal is not reached.

    It is not until an aircraft undergoes some major maintenance that a seller is sufficiently motivated to accept a lower figure, or a buyer is willing to pay a higher price and the aircraft transacts, ultimately.

    A wise seller needs to consider the potential marketability impact early maintenance might have on their aircraft, as well as its enrollment on an HCMP where more than half of their model’s in-service fleet is enrolled on one.

    Sellers also need to carefully weigh any offer from a prospective buyer against the loss in value of their aircraft for sale as the asset spends more days on the market awaiting a better offer, while simultaneously accruing a higher maintenance figure.

    More information from www.assetinsight.com.

    This article was originally published by AvBuyer on August 14, 2020.

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Used Aircraft Maintenance Analysis – January 2020 see more

    NAFA member, Tony Kioussis, President of Asset Insight, discusses which business aircraft showed the most improvement and deterioration in terms of their maintenance exposure to ask price ratio during January 2020, and what the market factors impacting those models were. 

    During January 2020, the average Ask Price for aircraft in Asset Insight’s revised, and substantially expanded, tracked fleet increased 16.8%. Which models were impacted the most? Tony Kioussis explores.

    In January, Asset Insight expanded the number of aircraft in its tracked fleet of 134 fixed-wing models, and the new inventory mix posted a 1.6% unit decrease to 2,147 aircraft for sale, compared to the 2,182 assets comprising the same make/model list in December.

    Asset quality improved 1.3% during the month, from December’s 5.206 to 5.272, a 12-month best figure that moved the Quality Rating from ‘Very Good’ into the ‘Excellent’ range on our scale of -2.5 to 10.

    Additionally, at $1.332m, Maintenance Exposure (an aircraft’s accumulated/embedded maintenance expense) posted the lowest (best) 12-month figure for the second consecutive month.

    January’s Aircraft Value Trends

    During January, the average Ask Price for aircraft in the expanded fleet increased 16.8%, with all four groups contributing.

    • Medium Jets led the way through an increase of 22.7%
    • Large Jets were a close second rising 22.4%
    • Turboprop Ask Prices increased 10.2%
    • Small Jets increased 1.6%.

    January’s Fleet for Sale Trends

    The total number of used aircraft listed for sale decreased 1.6%, although this comprised a larger overall fleet size by virtue of the increase in tracked models. Total tracked inventory decreased 35 units with individual group figures breaking down as follows:

    • Large Jet inventory: Increased 0.9% (+4 units since December 2019)
    • Medium Jet inventory: Decreased 7.0% (+46)
    • Small Jet Inventory: Increased 5.9% (+38) and
    • Turboprop inventory: Decreased 6.9% (+31)

    January’s Maintenance Exposure Trends

    Maintenance Exposure (an aircraft’s accumulated/embedded maintenance expense) decreased 1% to post a 12-month low figure in January. Individual results were as follows:

    • Large Jets: Increased (worsened) by 2%, based on January’s expanded fleet mix;
    • Medium Jets: Maintenance Exposure improved (decreased) 1.7%;
    • Small Jets: Worsened by increasing 6.5% due, in part, to the new fleet mix;
    • Turboprops: Improved by 10.5% as a result of the new models added in January.

    January’s ETP Ratio Trend

    The latest fleet mix increased (worsened) the average ETP Ratio to 72%, from December’s 64.8%, but Turboprops posted a respectable improvement (decrease).

    The ETP Ratio calculates an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure as it relates to the Ask Price. This is achieved by dividing an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure (the financial liability accrued with respect to future scheduled maintenance events) by the aircraft's Ask Price.

    As the ETP Ratio decreases, the asset's value increases (in relation to the aircraft's price). ‘Days on Market’ analysis has shown that when the ETP Ratio is greater than 40%, a listed aircraft’s Days on the Market (DoM) increase, in many cases by more than 30%.

    During Q4 2019, aircraft whose ETP Ratio was 40% or greater were listed for sale nearly 84% longer than assets with an ETP Ratio below 40% (215 versus 395 DoM). How did each group fare during January?

    • Turboprops held the top (best) spot by a wide margin posting the lowest ETP Ratio, 42.6% (a 12-month low/best figure for this group and a substantive improvement on December’s 52.1%);
    • Large Jets held on to second place, but the 70.7% Ratio represented the group’s record high (worst) figure;
    • Small Jets captured third position but worsened from December’s 67.3% to 76.8%;
    • Medium Jets took last place while posting the group’s record low (worst) figure of 87.4% compared to December’s 75.5%.

    Excluding models whose ETP Ratio was over 200% during one of the previous two months (considered outliers), following is a breakdown of the business jet and turboprop models that fared the best and worst during January 2020.

    Most Improved Models

    Four of the ‘Most Improved’ models posted a Maintenance Exposure decrease (improvement), while the Hawker 1000A and the Falcon 900 experienced a Maintenance Exposure increase. Excepting the Citation VI, which had no Ask Price change, the remaining five models experienced price increases as follows:

    • Hawker 1000A $264,250
    • Beech King Air C90 $17,714
    • Cessna Citation ISP $14,409
    • Gulfstream GIV $189,141
    • Dassault Falcon 900 $1,700,000

    Asset Insight Most Improved Aircraft - January 2020

     

    Hawker 1000A

    The Hawker 1000A captured top spot on the ‘Most Improved’ list, following its third place showing on December’s list after occupying the ‘Most Deteriorated’ slot in November. No transactions were posted for January, but two transactions were confirmed for December after we closed out that month.

    There were nine assets listed for sale at the end of January, equating to 22.5% of the active fleet. The model earned its top spot via a 17.6% ETP Ratio improvement thanks to a Maintenance Exposure decrease approaching $13k, along with a substantial Ask Price ‘increase’, but only because the two least expensive aircraft were the ones that changed ownership.

    Seller Advice: With current listings averaging an Ask Price 53% higher than December’s average trading value, along with an average ETP Ratio of 91.4%, sellers should carefully consider offers that, on first blush, may appear to be low.

    Cessna Citation VI

    The Citation VI took second place on January’s ‘Most Improved’ list thanks to a Maintenance Exposure decrease exceeding $170k that played well with no change in the model’s Ask Price.

    One aircraft transacted in January, and the seven inventory units amount to 20% of the active fleet for sale. With an ETP Ratio exceeding 115%, sellers need to be sure before turning down any offers. Buyers are likely to be few and far between.

    Beechcraft King Air C90

    This model posted four transactions in January and 43 units remained for sale (10.8% of the active fleet). The King Air C90 joined the Most Improved list due to a 14.5% ETP Ratio improvement, and this was thanks to a Maintenance Exposure reduction approaching $53k and an Ask Price increase.

    Although the C90 fleet is between 38 and 49 years of age, this aircraft continues to enjoy a decent following. Its current ETP Ratio of 113.2% will create difficult decisions for some sellers, but there is sufficient market interest for most owners to find buyers, assuming they are realistic about the market’s view of their asset’s value.

    Cessna Citation ISP

    The Citation ISP found itself in this same position in November, and was on the ‘Most Deteriorated’ list in December. The 13.1% ETP Ratio improvement resulted from a near $66k decrease in Maintenance Exposure, along with an Ask Price increase exceeding $14k.

    Four transactions were posted in January, but 55 units were listed for sale at the end of the month (19.6% of the active fleet). The model’s current 94.3% ETP Ratio places buyers squarely in the driving seat.

    Gulfstream GIV

    Two aircraft joined the ‘for sale’ fleet in January, and with no transactions being posted, inventory rose to 25 units (14.3% of the active fleet). The model has demonstrated resilience over the past few years and earned its place on this list by virtue of an $18k Maintenance Exposure decrease along with an Ask Price increase exceeding $189k.

    However, at 27 to 34 years of age, and carrying an ETP Ratio of 131.5%, one wonders how much longer GIV aircraft that are not covered by an engine Hourly Cost Maintenance Program will be truly marketable.

    Dassault Falcon 900

    The final model joined this month’s ‘Most Improved’ list on technical grounds and proved, yet again, why small fleets can create misleading statistics. No Falcon 900s transacted in January, the lone December inventory aircraft was withdrawn, and two other units entered the for-sale fleet.

    These changes led to a $338k Maintenance Exposure increase, but a whopping $1.7m Ask Price increase helped secure a place for the Falcon 900 on the list. The problem is, the latest listings are priced over 60% higher than the withdrawn aircraft, making the Ask Pricing difficult to achieve while also artificially enhancing the group’s ETP Ratio.

    Hope is never a well-founded strategy.

    Most Deteriorated Models

    All six models on January’s ‘Most Deteriorated’ list registered a Maintenance Exposure increase. The Cessna Citation II and the Gulfstream GV posted an Ask Price increase of $5,504 and $249,167, respectively. The remaining models registered the following decreases:

    • Hawker 800A   -$64,968
    • Bombardier Global Express -$426,250
    • Piaggio P-180   -$58,696
    • Dassault Falcon 900B -$367,500

    Asset Insight Most Deteriorated Aircraft - January 2020

     

    Hawker 800A

    January’s ‘Most Deteriorated’ model posted no transactions during the month, and the 33 units listed for sale accounted for 14.3% of the active fleet. To achieve its position on this list, the Hawker 800A posted a Maintenance Exposure increase approaching $149k, and an Ask Price reduction approaching $65k.

    With a listed fleet ETP Ratio of 191%, any seller whose aircraft engines are not enrolled on an Hourly Cost Maintenance Program is likely to keep flying their aircraft until it reaches the salvage yard.

    Cessna Citation II

    The Citation II was second-best on the ‘Most Improved’ list in December, so how did it get here one month on? A Maintenance Exposure increase exceeding $93k was the primary culprit, but its problems do not stop there.

    Two units transacted in January, one was withdrawn from inventory, and five more aircraft joined the fleet to offer buyers a selection of 95 assets (18.5% of the active fleet) sporting an ETP Ratio of 108.8%.

    Seller Advice: If an offer comes your way, consider it a gift no matter how small!

    Bombardier Global Express

    This model occupied top spot on our ‘Most Improved’ list last month, but inventory changes through additions and withdrawals increased Maintenance Exposure over $1.1m, and an Ask Price reduction exceeding $426k certainly didn’t help.

    On a positive note, the model’s 13 listings equate to only 9% of the active fleet, and its ETP Ratio of 68.8% will make many of these aircraft quite marketable, especially if they are enrolled on an engine Hourly Cost Maintenance Program.

    Note: As we pointed out last month, the Bombardier Global Express still has plenty of financial and operating life remaining, along with a strong following. For this reason, many current and potential owners are considering upgrading their asset utilizing the JANUS Modernization Program, a decision that could add substantial value to the aircraft while making it virtually indistinguishable from a new production unit, particularly with respect to passenger amenities.

    Piaggio P-180

    The market has not been kind to this model, which is unfortunate considering its cabin size, low interior noise level, and speed for a turboprop. No transactions were reported in January, while the three additions to inventory increased buyer selection to 14 units, or 16.7% of the active fleet.

    The aircraft’s 115.9% ETP Ratio, created through a Maintenance Exposure increase approaching $75k and an Ask Price drop of nearly $59k, is undoubtedly challenging sellers. Buyers are firmly in the driving seat here as well.

    Dassault Falcon 900B

    One aircraft transacted in January and two were withdrawn from inventory, leaving 12 units listed for sale (8% of the active fleet). Unfortunately, those inventory changes increased Maintenance Exposure by nearly $247k, while Ask Price fell approximately $368k, landing the model on this list.

    With an ETP Ratio of 45%, most of these aircraft are infinitely marketable, especially if their engines are enrolled on HCMP.

    Gulfstream GV

    Even though the GV posted an Ask Price increase in January, the model could not overcome a Maintenance Exposure increase approaching $1.1m, created through the withdrawal from inventory of two assets and no sales transactions. The GV thereby found its way to this list after occupying sixth place on the ‘Most Improved’ group in December.

    With only 12 units listed for sale (6.3% of the active fleet), an ETP Ratio averaging 41.4%, the aircraft’s superb operating capabilities, and the market following for this model, most sellers should have the ability to extract good value from the sale of their asset.

    The Seller’s Challenge

    It is important to understand that the ETP Ratio has more to do with buyer and seller dynamics than it does with either the asset’s accrued maintenance or its price. For any aircraft, maintenance can accrue only so far before work must be completed.

    But as an aircraft’s value decreases, there will come a point when the accrued maintenance figure equates to more than 40% of the aircraft’s ask price. When a prospective buyer adjusts their offer to address this accrued maintenance, the figure is all-too-often considered unacceptable to the seller and a deal is not reached.

    It is not until an aircraft undergoes some major maintenance that a seller is sufficiently motivated to accept a lower figure, or a buyer is willing to pay a higher price and the aircraft transacts, ultimately.

    A wise seller needs to consider the potential marketability impact early maintenance might have on their aircraft, as well as its enrollment on an Hourly Cost Maintenance Program where more than half of their model’s in-service fleet is enrolled on one.

    Sellers also need to carefully weigh any offer from a prospective buyer against the loss in value of their aircraft for sale as the asset spends more days on the market awaiting a better offer while simultaneously accruing a higher maintenance figure.

    This report was originally published by AvBuyer on February 17, 2020.

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Over and Above - Hourly Cost Maintenance Programs Offer Unexpected Benefits see more

    NAFA member, Anthony Kioussis, President of Asset Insight, LLC, discusses the benefits of Hourly Cost Maintenance Programs.

    As OEMs sought to expand aircraft deliveries to Business and General Aviation (B&GA) during the early ’80s, they encountered two hurdles. One was the perceived, if not real, inability of certain engines to achieve their published maintenance intervals, thereby increasing operating costs. The other was operator perception that certain airframes and engines were more expensive to maintain than advertised.

    To address both concerns, numerous OEMs modified offerings already available to the airlines, and Hourly Cost Maintenance Programs (HCMP) were born. Initially viewed as expensive, the idea of “guaranteed operating costs” soon was embraced by B&GA operators. And once lenders and lessors began relying on their value to securitize their assets, HCMP coverage became an industry staple.

    Today, aircraft owners routinely experience enhanced value when their Program-enrolled aircraft is sold. In fact, not enrolling some models on HCMP may result in a valuation reduction to the aircraft, since the majority of certain models are so enrolled. However, some new and used aircraft buyers may not consider that HCMP offers benefits over and above the value increase to the aircraft. These are quantifiable and can provide value directly to the owner. For example:

    • Additional Coverage While Under Warranty – Certain “related expenses” are not covered by warranty, such as the cost for shipping the affected component to the maintenance facility, shipping a rental component to the aircraft, installing the component, the cost of the rental component during the repair period, removing the rental part once the original component has been repaired, return shipping for the rental, shipping cost to the maintenance facility for the original component, and logistical support associated with these tasks – including the cost to transport and house personnel at an unscheduled maintenance event site. That is not to say the warranty is not valuable, but its coverage often is limited to the cost of repairing the affected component.
    • Exposure at Resale – Depending on market conditions, an owner may choose to pay to enroll an uncovered aircraft on HCMP rather than having to discount its sale price in excess of that enrollment fee. While incurring the expense at the time of sale, they have enjoyed none of the HCMP coverage benefits.
    • Days on Market – Detailed analytics from resale organizations show that an in-service aircraft will take longer to sell absent HCMP coverage. This could mean a substantial loss in value as aircraft are depreciating assets.
    • Rental Component Expense – Many owners fail to account for the true cost of rental components, the potential difference in their travel experience when chartering aircraft, the total cost of charters during their asset’s downtime, and storage as well as other fees for their grounded aircraft.
    • Freight and Shipping Charges – The cost to ship “Aircraft on Ground” parts, and the freight charges and logistical challenges to transport a component from wherever the event occurred to the service facility, as well as the cost to ship a rental component to the site of the maintenance event, should not be underestimated.
    • Financing Benefits – Each aircraft financing entity has its own way of valuing Hourly Cost Maintenance Programs, so it’s difficult to determine the exact value that any one financier may place on HCMP coverage. However, the savings differential over the term of a loan or lease could be substantial.

    In addition to the OEMs, HCMP coverage is available from independent sources. Their advantage is the ability to cover components produced by more than one OEM, making them a one-stop-shop. However, some firms may not be acceptable to financing entities, may not offer coverage equivalent to the OEM, and their program may not be transferable – making its value questionable.

    Hourly Cost Maintenance Programs are by no means free, but the additional value they can provide to the aircraft’s owner, can make them a wise investment. 

    This article was originally published by Business Aviation Advisor on January 1, 2020.

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Used Aircraft Maintenance Analysis – December 2019 see more

    NAFA member, Tony Kioussis, President of Asset Insight, shares the December 2019 Used Aircraft Maintenance Analysis.  

    Average Ask Price for aircraft in Asset Insight’s tracked fleet decreased 0.7% in December, but value changes varied substantively based on model size. Which models were impacted the most? 

    During December, the number of inventory aircraft comprising Asset Insight’s tracked fleet of 96 fixed-wing models decreased 1.6% to 1,748 units.

    Asset quality improved 0.2% during the month, but worsened overall during Q4 by the same amount, and by 1.8% during the calendar year. Still, at 5.206, the ‘for sale’ fleet’s Quality Rating remained within the ‘Very Good’ range on Asset Insight’s scale of -2.5 to 10

    Maintenance Exposure (an aircraft’s accumulated/embedded maintenance expense) posted the best (lowest) figure for 2019 during December at $1.345m, equating to an improvement of 1% for the month, 0.9% for Q4, and 4.9% year-over-year.

    December’s Aircraft Value Trends

    Asset Insight’s tracked fleet closed out 2019 by losing an additional 0.7% of asset value in December and, even though pricing increased 0.8% during Q4, the average aircraft in our tracked fleet lost 3.1% of its value year-over-year. Group performance varied as follows:

      December 2019 Q4 2019 Since December 2018
    Large Jets -1.2% -1.6% -9.1%
    Medium Jets -3.0% 0.4% 11.0%
    Small Jets -2.9% -1.8% -5.7%
    Turboprops 2.0% 4.7% -2.2%

     

    December’s Fleet for Sale Trends

    The total number of used aircraft listed for sale within Asset Insight’s tracked fleet decreased 1.6% following six consecutive monthly increases, reducing inventory by 28 units during the December transaction frenzy while resulting in an increase in ‘for sale’ fleet of 9.9% during 2019 (157 units).

    All four groups ended the year with higher availability:

    • Large Jet inventory: Unchanged for the month, and up 8.7% year-over-year (30 units);
    • Medium Jet inventory: Decreased 1.7% (nine units) in December, but gained 9.8% (48 units) during 2019;
    • Small Jet Inventory: Receded an additional 2.8% (16 units) in December, but gained 15.4% (73 units) throughout the year; and
    • Turboprop inventory: Decreased 1% (three units) for the month while increasing 2.1% (six units) since December 2018.

    December’s Maintenance Exposure Trends

    Graphically, Maintenance Exposure (an aircraft’s accumulated/embedded maintenance expense) traveled a sawtooth journey in 2019. It improved 1% in December (to post the year’s best figure); 0.9% during Q4; and 4.9% for the calendar year. Individual results were as follows…

    • Large Jets: Posted their lowest (best) maintenance exposure of 2019 during the month of December through a 2% decrease (improvement) for the month, along with a decrease of 3.6% during Q4, and a 15% year-over-year improvement;
    • Medium Jet: Exposure improved (decreased) 1.1% in December, but worsened 2.7% during Q4 and 6.9% since the start of 2019;
    • Small Jets: Suffered a couple of costly spikes during the year, but fell (improved) by 1.4% in December, 1.9% during Q4, and 3.5% for the year;
    • Turboprops: Maintenance exposure improved a bit during Q4, decreasing 4.2% (with 0.8% coming in December), but lost ground for the year by increasing (worsening) over 4.8% since last December.

    December’s ETP Ratio Trend

    The latest fleet mix increased (worsened) the average ETP Ratio slightly to 64.8%, from November’s 64.3%. While the year ranged from a low of 63.6% up to 70.9%, the tracked fleet posted the same figure in January 2019 as it did in December 2019.

    The ETP Ratio calculates an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure as it relates to the Ask Price. This is achieved by dividing an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure (the financial liability accrued with respect to future scheduled maintenance events) by the aircraft's Ask Price.

    As the ETP Ratio decreases, the asset's value increases (in relation to the aircraft's price). ‘Days on Market’ analysis has shown that when the ETP Ratio is greater than 40%, a listed aircraft’s Days on the Market (DoM) increase, in many cases by more than 30%.

    During Q4 2019, aircraft whose ETP Ratio was 40% or greater were listed for sale nearly 84% longer than assets with an ETP Ratio below 40% (215 versus 395 DoM). How did each group fare during December?

    • Turboprops recaptured the top (best) spot with the lowest ETP Ratio, 52.1% (compared to November’s 54.1% and December 2018’s 51.1%);
    • Large Jets moved down into second place with a Ratio of 55.1% (versus November’s 53.9% and December 2018’s 58.8%;
    • Small Jets captured third position by remaining unchanged for the month at 67.3%. But the group’s figure increased a bit from December 2018’s 66.4%;
    • Medium Jets took last place at 75.5% (compared to November’s 73.6% and December 2018’s 77.8%.

    Excluding models whose ETP Ratio was over 200% during one of the previous two months (considered outliers), following is a breakdown of the business jet and turboprop models that fared the best and worst during December 2019.

     

    Asset Insight - Most Improved Business Jets and Turboprops (December 2019)

     

    Most Improved Models

    Five of the ‘Most Improved’ models revealed a Maintenance Exposure decrease (improvement), while the King Air 300’s Exposure increased. Two aircraft – the Bombardier Global Express and Gulfstream GV – posted no price change, while the Cessna Citation II posted a price decrease of $4,596. The remaining three models experienced price increases as follows:

    • Hawker 1000A  $88,000
    • Beech King Air 300  $219,090
    • Bombardier Learjet 45XR $292,500

     

    Bombardier Global Express

    The Bombardier Global Express captured top spot on the ‘Most Improved’ list as a single sale, an aircraft’s withdrawal from inventory and two additions to the ‘for sale’ fleet lowered the group’s Maintenance Exposure by nearly $1.6m.

    The 14 listed aircraft represent 10.3% of the active fleet and, while that percentage may be a little high, many of those aircraft are enrolled on an engine Hourly Cost Maintenance Program (HCMP) that should bring the 55.1% ETP Ratio to below 40% once adjusted for HCMP coverage.

    Note: The Bombardier Global Express still has plenty of financial and operating life remaining, along with a strong following. For this reason, many current and potential owners are considering upgrading their asset utilizing the JANUS Modernization Program, a decision that could add substantial value to the aircraft while making it virtually indistinguishable from a new production unit, particularly with respect to passenger amenities. Some owners are also contemplating upgrading their avionics suite.

     

    Cessna Citation II

    The Cessna Citation II placed second on November’s ‘Most Improved’ list and earned the same position in December thanks to a Maintenance Exposure decrease approaching $97k (even though its Ask Price actually dropped in December).

    Two aircraft transacted in December, two were withdrawn from inventory, while two more entered the ‘for sale’ pool. The 93 units currently available represent 18.5% of an aging fleet, and the model’s near 94% ETP Ratio make this a potential ‘buy it to keep it’ asset for prospective owners.

     

    Hawker 1000A

    The Hawker 1000A moved from occupying the ‘Most Deteriorated’ position in November, to third best on the ‘Most Improved’ list in December thanks to a Maintenance Exposure decrease exceeding $30k and a respectable Ask Price increase by virtue of a single repriced inventory aircraft.

    The seller’s repriced unit perhaps notwithstanding, this model’s ETP Ratio suggests that the average buyer should count on incurring Maintenance Exposure equivalent to the price of the aircraft they’re purchasing, and that’s not the type of asset sought by most buyers, especially a model sporting a limited production run.

    Seller Advice: Consider any offer that comes your way. Another proposal may not come any time soon.

     

    Beechcraft King Air 300

    Two aircraft transacted in December, but three more entered inventory raising availability to 18 units, approximately 8% of the active fleet. The King Air 300 made this list primarily due to an Ask Price increase exceeding $219k that overrode a Maintenance Exposure increase exceeding $11k.

    With few such models enrolled on engine HCMP, the King Air 300’s 54.8% ETP Ratio might require some sellers to accept a lower price than they’d like. However, even an ETP Ratio slightly above 40% should not be a serious impediment to mutually beneficial transactions, in view of the model’s fan base.

     

    Bombardier Learjet 45XR

    Three sales and one lease were completed in December, but with four additions to inventory the number of units for sale remained at 18, representing 8.8% of the active fleet.

    The model’s ETP Ratio of 33.7% makes this aircraft readily marketable, especially if the asset’s engines are covered by HCMP. Whether the Ask Price increase can be supported remains to be seen.

     

    Gulfstream GV

    The final model on this month’s ‘Most Improved’ list experienced no average Ask Price change in December, but a single transaction and two additions to inventory lowered the average Maintenance Exposure by more than $658k.

    The 14 inventory units equate to 7.3% of the active fleet for sale. With an ETP Ratio of 31.5%, and with more than half of this fleet enrolled on engine HCMPs, sellers of HCMP-covered assets should experience less trouble securing an acceptable offer than the current 260 Days on Market would suggest.

    Asset Insight - Most Deteriorated Business Jets and Turboprops (December 2019)

     

    Most Deteriorated Models

    Five of the six models on December’s ‘Most Deteriorated’ list registered a Maintenance Exposure increase, while the Dassault Falcon 50 posted a decrease. The Bombardier Learjet 55C posted no Ask Price change; the Challenger 601-3R Ask Price rose by $50,000; and the remaining models registered the following decreases:

    • Dassault Falcon 50  -$185,909
    • Cessna Citation ISP  -$38,461
    • Dassault Falcon 900EX -$316,667
    • Bombardier Learjet 35A -$1,455

     

    Bombardier Learjet 55C

    December’s ‘Most Deteriorated’ model posted no transactions in December, and only two inventory aircraft remained after one of the ‘for sale’ units was withdrawn. The Learjet 55C’s Maintenance Exposure increase exceeded $189k that, along with no Ask Price change, earned the jet its position on this list.

    This Learjet’s problem is two-fold: First, it’s an aging asset with limited market following. Second, with an ETP Ratio approaching 109%, buyer offers are unlikely to be appealing for sellers.

     

    Dassault Falcon 50

    The second ‘Most Deteriorated’ asset to make this list registered two transactions in December, two aircraft were withdrawn from inventory, three were added to the ‘for sale’ fleet, and the 30-unit availability equated to 15.7% of the active fleet.

    The model earned its spot on this list through a Maintenance Exposure increase approaching $16k, along with an Ask Price decrease approaching $186k that combined to create an ETP Ratio approaching 126%.

    Considering the aircraft’s age, the only surprise is the model’s relatively short remarketing period of approximately six months, which speaks to the aircraft’s operating capabilities that continue to create followers.

     

    Bombardier Challenger 601-3R

    Those of you following these monthly reviews may recall that this aircraft led all models on November’s ‘Most Improved’ list. How quickly an asset’s fortune changes as it approaches financial obsolescence.

    One asset sold in December, but two more entered inventory and the six available units represented 9.8% of the active fleet. That statistic is not the problem. The 601-3R’s ETP Ratio of 125% (created by a Maintenance Exposure increase nearing $394k, and the fleet’s age) are this asset’s greatest challenges.

     

    Cessna Citation ISP

    As we closed out December, there were 53 Citation ISP units listed for sale (19.3% of the active fleet). With this level of competition, singling out their aircraft’s value is a serious challenge for sellers. Nevertheless, some were able to do so and four sold in December.

    Unfortunately, two other units entered the fleet, and the change in availability resulted in a Maintenance Exposure increase exceeding $17k, along with an Ask Price drop of more than $38k. The model’s ETP Ratio (which now exceeds 107%) makes this a buyer’s paradise, assuming they’re willing to risk becoming the aircraft’s final owner.

     

    Dassault Falcon 900EX

    This model earned its place on the ‘Most Deteriorated’ list for technical reasons. Its ETP Ratio of 34.9% should cause few challenges for sellers who understand their aircraft’s value relative to comparable assets listed for sale.

    Three aircraft transacted in December and one new asset joined the inventory. The seven available units equate to only 5.9% of the active fleet.

    The technical figures creating the model’s ETP Ratio deterioration were a Maintenance Exposure increase approaching $479k, along with an Ask Price decrease of nearly $317k (thanks to the latest entry to inventory). These aircraft continue to be financially and operationally viable assets.

     

    Bombardier Learjet 35A

    This is yet another example of a model nearing financial, and probably operational, obsolescence. And yet one aircraft sold during December (and another was withdrawn from inventory), leaving 43 units, or 10.1% of the active fleet, listed for sale.

    When a model offers this much selection to buyers, along with an ETP Ratio exceeding 181%, complements of a Maintenance Exposure increase nearing $46k and a nominal Ask Price decrease, sellers are at a severe disadvantage. The one thing buyers should ensure they consider is if they truly wish to own an asset of this age.

     

    ADS-B Equipage and Values

    The new year could result in some dramatic price decreases for older aircraft that have not met the January 2020 ADS-B equipage mandate. While we do not believe non-equipped turbine assets will be ‘worthless’, their values will be negatively impacted.

    For aging assets, especially those with little time left before their recommended engine overhaul point, Salvage Value is a very real possibility, although actual transaction figures will be the true determinant.

     

    The Seller’s Challenge

    It is important to understand that the ETP Ratio has more to do with buyer and seller dynamics than it does with either the asset’s accrued maintenance or its price. For any aircraft, maintenance can accrue only so far before work must be completed.

    But as an aircraft’s value decreases, there will come a point when the accrued maintenance figure equates to more than 40% of the aircraft’s ask price. When a prospective buyer adjusts their offer to address this accrued maintenance, the figure is all-too-often considered unacceptable to the seller and a deal is not reached.

    It is not until an aircraft undergoes some major maintenance that a seller is sufficiently motivated to accept a lower figure, or a buyer is willing to pay a higher price and the aircraft transacts, ultimately.

    A wise seller needs to consider the potential marketability impact early maintenance might have on their aircraft, as well as its enrollment on an Hourly Cost Maintenance Program where more than half of their model’s in-service fleet is enrolled on one.

    Sellers also need to carefully weigh any offer from a prospective buyer against the loss in value of their aircraft for sale as the asset spends more days on the market awaiting a better offer while simultaneously accruing a higher maintenance figure

    This article was originally published by AvBuyer on January 10, 2020.

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Vinci Aeronautica Joins National Aircraft Finance Association see more

    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

    EDGEWATER, Md.Feb. 13, 2018 - National Aircraft Finance Association (NAFA) is pleased to announce that Vinci Aeronatucia has recently joined its professional network of aviation lenders. “NAFA members proudly finance - support or enable the financing of - general and business aviation aircraft throughout the world, and we’re happy to add Vinci to our association,” said Ford von Weise, President of NAFA.

    Vinci Aeronautica specialists have more than 20 years of experience in the aviation industry, providing aircraft recurrent, pre-buy, redelivery and compliance inspections services for the finance and legal sectors. The company has an extensive background in maintenance management, operations, finance, regulatory compliance and sales/purchases of aircraft. The Vinci team works with the Civil Aviation Authority and several air operators to provide focused and tailored services to their valued clients. 

    With experienced inspectors, Vinci has carried out more than 2000 inspections ofa wide variety of aircraft – both fixed and rotary wings– and assisted numerous air companies – both large and small. The company has also trained and worked with many authorities worldwide, gaining significant knowledge and expertise with different compliance systems, including EASA and FAA systems.

    Vinci Aeronautica prides itself on having a global reach while providing local knowledge. Their inspectors and audit teams are fluent in English, Spanish, Portuguese and French, forming the biggest dedicated aircraft inspection company in Latin America. They are a team of highly specialized professionals with formal training on aviation rulemaking and a strong technical background. Along with the company’s proprietary asset management system, Vinci has the experience, knowledge and technology to take the utmost care of their clients’ assets.

    Much like NAFA, Vinci Aeronautica is committed to providing the highest level of service in the aviation industry. Vinci and NAFA establish strong business relationships worldwide, fostering a network of knowledgeable aviation professionals.

    For more information about Vinci Aeronautica, visit vinciaero.com.  

    About NAFA: 

    The National Aircraft Finance Association (NAFA) is a non-profit corporation dedicated to promoting the general welfare of individuals and organizations providing aircraft financing and loans secured by aircraft; to improving the industry's service to the public; and to providing our members with a forum for education and the sharing of information and knowledge to encourage the financing, leasing and insuring of general aviation aircraft. For more information about NAFA, visit www.NAFA.aero.

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Global Aircraft Maintenance Requirements see more

    NAFA member, Aircraft Guaranty Corporation, discusses global aircraft maintenance requirements.

    Global Aircraft Maintenance Requirements

    The goal of any good government is to protect the population. Most safety and maintenance requirements that governments create, therefore, are designed to protect the masses. Furthermore, many registries around the globe have limited financial resources and limited manpower. For these reasons, safety and maintenance requirements tend to focus on the aircraft that transport the largest number of passengers at any given time – the commercial airliners.

    As an example, a particular country may have a condition stating that an aircraft engine has to be replaced when it reaches a certain number of operating hours. Imagine the difference in operating hours between a commercial jet liner and a private, owner/operated turbo prop. The same hourly condition would not be practical for both aircraft, but there are often not separate requirements for the different aircraft types. Thus, the requirements made for commercial airliners are cumbersome, and often nonsensical to the private aircraft industry, making it difficult and expensive for small aircraft owners to experience the joys of owning and operating a private plane.

    FAA Maintenance Requirements

    The FAA’s regulations and maintenance requirements are friendlier towards small aircraft and the general aviation population. This may be because of sheer volume. The FAA has more aircraft registered on its registry than most other countries. Private aviation is very popular in America, so the US is more open to creating laws that are favorable to the general aviation community.

    Many foreign aircraft owners will agree that registration in the US is simpler, cleaner, and more affordable. Moreover, its laws have a sufficient concern for safety, without being cumbersome to the private aircraft owner community. Many also believe that US registered aircraft are easier to sell. In order to reap these many benefits, foreign private aircraft owners are often motivated to register their aircraft in trust in the US.

    US Trust Registrations

    There are, of course, many other reasons to register aircraft in trust in the US. Our blog, 8 Benefits of Registering an Aircraft in Trust, lists some of the most common. And while resale value cannot be guaranteed, and other countries are working to make registration easier on the general aviation community, the popularity of registering in trust in the US does not seem to be waning.

    This article was originally published by Aircraft Guaranty Corporation on October 25, 2018.

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Used Aircraft Maintenance Analysis - September 2018 see more

    NAFA member, Tony Kioussis, President of Asset Insight, shares who the movers and shakers were in the September 2018 Used Aircraft Maintenance Analysis.

    As we enter Q4 2018, sellers appear to be more focused than ever on moving their aircraft. Which business jets and turboprops were the movers and shakers in September’s used aircraft marketplace?

    Asset Insight’s market analysis on September 28, 2018 covering 93 fixed-wing models and 1,553 aircraft listed ‘For Sale’, revealed an Ask Price drop of 5%. By group:

    • Large Jet values decreased 1.2% (combined loss of 9.7% during Q3);
    • Medium Jets gained 2.2% to finish Q3 up 0.9%;
    • Small Jet values lost a nominal 0.2%, but posted a 4.1% pricing gain in Q3;
    • Turboprops fell 1.1% to a 12-month low and recorded a Q3 loss of 3.4%.

    The total number of used aircraft listed ‘For Sale’ for Asset Insight’s tracked fleet decreased by 2.4% (39 units), as Large, Medium and Small Jet inventories decreased 4.7% (16 units), 4.2% (11 units) and 1.3% (six units), respectively, while Turboprops increased by 1.4% (four units).

    Average Maintenance Exposure (an aircraft’s accumulated/embedded maintenance expense) decreased (improved) 4.8%, as the inventory fleet’s upcoming maintenance events are expected to be less expensive.

    • Large Jets increased (worsened) 4.9% as higher-quality aircraft transacted;
    • Medium Jet Maintenance Exposure remained unchanged as the quality of aircraft transacting was mixed;
    • Small Jet Exposure decreased (improved) a dramatic 15.8%;
    • Turboprops posted a 10.7% drop to an amount marginally worse than the group’s best (lowest) 12-month figure.

    All this led to a Maintenance Exposure to Price (ETP) Ratio decrease (improvement) of 7.2% during September that – at 67.1% - remained virtually unchanged for the quarter.

    ETP Ratios Explained

    The ETP Ratio calculates an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure as it relates to the Ask Price. This is achieved by dividing an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure (the financial liability accrued with respect to future scheduled maintenance events) by the aircraft's Ask Price. As the ETP Ratio decreases, the asset's value increases (in relation to the aircraft's price).

    ‘Days on Market’ analysis has shown that when the ETP Ratio is greater than 40%, a listed aircraft’s Days on Market increase (in many cases by more than 30%).

    So, for example, aircraft whose ETP Ratio exceeded 40% during Q2 2018 were listed ‘For Sale’ an average 72% longer than aircraft whose Ratio was below 40% (169 days versus 291 days on the market, respectively) while during Q3 2018 aircraft whose ETP Ratio exceeded 40% took nearly 34% longer to sell (280 versus 374 Days on Market).

    • Turboprops yet again posted the lowest (best) ETP Ratio at 50.1%, reflecting a 4.4% improvement for the quarter;
    • Large Jets followed with 64.2% (but that figure reflected a 7.4% degradation during Q3 and was the group’s highest (worst) ETP Ratio ever recorded);
    • With an impressive 18.7% reduction during September, and an 8.3% reduction during Q3, Small Jets posted the group’s best 12-month figure at 68.3%;
    • Medium Jets improved 2.5% during September, but with an ETP Ratio of 78% the group worsened by 8.2% during Q3.

    Excluding models whose ETP Ratio has remained over 200% during the previous two months (considered outliers), following is a breakdown of which individual models fared the best, and which fared the worst in September 2018.

    Read full report here.

    The original article was published by AvBuyer on October 16, 2018.