NAFA member Mike Smith, President of Scope Aircraft Finance, shares his latest article in The Plane Truth.
One of my favorite movies of all time is Anchorman. In one of the scenes of that movie, the narrator says, “Bob Dylan once wrote, ‘The Times They Are A-Changin’.” Ron Burgundy had never heard that song, so when he fell, he fell hard.”
That scene comes to mind regularly these days when I think about where interest rates have gone this year, and where things may go in the future. In fact, there are so many unique dynamics at play at once right now. We’ll chew through them periodically through our “The Plane Truth” articles the rest of the year.
As you know, a new chair of the Federal Reserve took the helm in June. Kevin Warsh is now Fed chair, and in the role he’s prioritizing providing less forward guidance than in recent history. For our conversation, let’s look at the “dot plot”. What is the dot plot? Periodically, members of the Fed forecast where they think rates will be headed. All their projections are outlined on a single chart represented by dots …hence the name “dot plot”.
This article was originally published in The Plane Truth on August 27, 2026.