Brant Dahlfors

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Jet Transactions Releases Q1 2019 Bombardier Market Update see more

    NAFA member Brant Dahlfors, co-founder of Jet Transactions, shares the Q1 2019 Bombardier Market Update.

    Welcome to another year of uncertainty fueled by declining Global GDP, trade wars and geo- political concerns in major trading markets around the world. The drop in trading activity in the last month of Q4-18 certainly dribbled into early Q1-19. By late-January however activity clearly increased to Oct/Nov levels raising hopes that 2019 would actually show positive growth across new and used aircraft. By the end of Q1 market signals are mixed at best. Charter activity is showing signs of decline as we start the year. This is something to pay close attention to as charter activity is often a “canary in the coal mine” signal.

    New aircraft deliveries are down quarter over quarter which is consistent with the seasonality effect as OEMs pull as many aircraft into the fourth quarter as possible. The major OEMs all have new models starting with deliveries beginning from mid-2018 through mid-2020. With low starting production rates, the industry will not see the full effect for another year and a half to two years. On the positive side the OEMs crystal balls all indicate there is a solid market for new high tech models with more range, speed, cabin space and efficiency. In spite of the 8+ new models recently, or soon to be certified, we expect several new exciting airplanes to be introduced before year-end.

    How does this affect the Bombardier pre-owned market? After a strong end to 2018, Bombardier saw an about average seasonal slowdown of factory new sales, dropping to 9 new units delivered in the first quarter of the year. The total number of pre-owned units for sale rose 11%, and while the older Globals have all crossed above 10% of their respective fleets for sale, the Challenger markets have stayed strong across the board with less than 5% of their respective fleets for sale. With the first GL7500 now in service and many more gearing up to be delivered in the coming months, Bombardier should continue to see strong demand for both pre-owned and new inventory this year.

    Click here to view the full market update.

    This market update was originally published by Jet Transactions on April 30, 2019. 

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Jet Transactions Q4 Bombardier Market Update see more

    NAFA member, Brant Dahlfors, Co-Founder of Jet Transactions, shares the Q4 Bombardier Market update.

    2018 continued its upward trend and ended the year with both new and used deliveries and orders up over 2017. However, the big-bang Q4, that so many projected, seemed to be over by mid-November aided by an increasingly caustic political environment, slowing GDP (worldwide), wild stock market gyrations and finally the threat of a Government shut down that materialized by the end of the Qtr. It wasn’t a bad quarter, it just wasn’t a great quarter as buyer caution outweighed the tax benefit fueled activity, which we began seeing in Q2 & Q3. The caution was also evident in aircraft activity which on a whole was down 0.5% Year over Year according to flight tracking data from Argus International.

    The future remains exciting nonetheless. We saw new certifications in 2018 of the G500 and Global 7500. 2019 will celebrate more exciting aircraft with the G600, Global 5500/6500 and Embraer Praetor 400/500 all due for certification. We expect 2019 to be a tougher growth year as new models will be in low ramp up production rates and the inventory of later model pre-owned aircraft remain low.

    How does this affect the Bombardier pre-owned market? Bombardier products ended the year on a high note, with overall inventory levels down nearly 11% year over year across all tracked models and pre-owned sales rose 30% over the previous quarter. Q4 saw substantial jumps in new units delivered as well compared to Q3-18, though up just 1 unit from last year’s close. Most of the market remains at healthy levels, with only the GL5000 Classic and Vision models inching above 10% of the fleet for sale, respectively. With the GL7500 now approved by both the American and Canadian aviation authorities, 2019 should prove to be a continual improving year for the OEM.

    Click here to see the full report.

    This report was originally published in Jet Transactions newsletter on 1/21/19.