Jet Transactions

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    NAFA members Mark Bloomer and Brant Dahlfors of Jet Transactions share the latest Q1 2019 Dassault M see more

    NAFA members Mark Bloomer and Brant Dahlfors of Jet Transactions share the latest Q1 2019 Dassault Market Update.

    Welcome to another year of uncertainty fueled by declining Global GDP, trade wars and geo- political concerns in major trading markets around the world. The drop in trading activity in the last month of Q4-18 certainly dribbled into early Q1-19. By late-January however activity clearly increased to Oct/Nov levels raising hopes that 2019 would actually show positive growth across new and used aircraft. By the end of Q1 market signals are mixed at best. Charter activity is showing signs of decline as we start the year. This is something to pay close attention to as charter activity is often a “canary in the coal mine” signal.

    New aircraft deliveries are down quarter over quarter which is consistent with the seasonality effect as OEMs pull as many aircraft into the fourth quarter as possible. The major OEMs all have new models starting with deliveries beginning from mid-2018 through mid-2020. With low starting production rates, the industry will not see the full effect for another year and a half to two years. On the positive side the OEMs crystal balls all indicate there is a solid market for new high tech models with more range, speed, cabin space and efficiency. In spite of the 8+ new models recently, or soon to be certified, we expect several new exciting airplanes to be introduced before year-end.

    How does this affect the Dassault pre-owned market? Dassault products saw another consecutive quarter of decline in pre-owned inventory levels, dropping a further 10% over Q4/18. Sales activity dropped by more than half for both factory new and pre-owned sales, not uncommon to see in the beginning of the year albeit not normally at this rate. Average ask prices firmed up in several of the models we track, and the majority of models benefited from lower average sales cycles. With an estimated two years to go before first flight and another year after that before first delivery, the upcoming Falcon 6X will help to fill a gap left behind with the abandoned 5X project. The Falcon 7X has seen deliveries slow down nearly in parallel with the rise of 8X sales.

    Click here for the full market update.

    This market update was originally published by Jet Transactions on April 30, 2019.

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Jet Transactions Releases Q1 2019 Bombardier Market Update see more

    NAFA member Brant Dahlfors, co-founder of Jet Transactions, shares the Q1 2019 Bombardier Market Update.

    Welcome to another year of uncertainty fueled by declining Global GDP, trade wars and geo- political concerns in major trading markets around the world. The drop in trading activity in the last month of Q4-18 certainly dribbled into early Q1-19. By late-January however activity clearly increased to Oct/Nov levels raising hopes that 2019 would actually show positive growth across new and used aircraft. By the end of Q1 market signals are mixed at best. Charter activity is showing signs of decline as we start the year. This is something to pay close attention to as charter activity is often a “canary in the coal mine” signal.

    New aircraft deliveries are down quarter over quarter which is consistent with the seasonality effect as OEMs pull as many aircraft into the fourth quarter as possible. The major OEMs all have new models starting with deliveries beginning from mid-2018 through mid-2020. With low starting production rates, the industry will not see the full effect for another year and a half to two years. On the positive side the OEMs crystal balls all indicate there is a solid market for new high tech models with more range, speed, cabin space and efficiency. In spite of the 8+ new models recently, or soon to be certified, we expect several new exciting airplanes to be introduced before year-end.

    How does this affect the Bombardier pre-owned market? After a strong end to 2018, Bombardier saw an about average seasonal slowdown of factory new sales, dropping to 9 new units delivered in the first quarter of the year. The total number of pre-owned units for sale rose 11%, and while the older Globals have all crossed above 10% of their respective fleets for sale, the Challenger markets have stayed strong across the board with less than 5% of their respective fleets for sale. With the first GL7500 now in service and many more gearing up to be delivered in the coming months, Bombardier should continue to see strong demand for both pre-owned and new inventory this year.

    Click here to view the full market update.

    This market update was originally published by Jet Transactions on April 30, 2019. 

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    Jet Transactions Q4 Bombardier Market Update see more

    NAFA member, Brant Dahlfors, Co-Founder of Jet Transactions, shares the Q4 Bombardier Market update.

    2018 continued its upward trend and ended the year with both new and used deliveries and orders up over 2017. However, the big-bang Q4, that so many projected, seemed to be over by mid-November aided by an increasingly caustic political environment, slowing GDP (worldwide), wild stock market gyrations and finally the threat of a Government shut down that materialized by the end of the Qtr. It wasn’t a bad quarter, it just wasn’t a great quarter as buyer caution outweighed the tax benefit fueled activity, which we began seeing in Q2 & Q3. The caution was also evident in aircraft activity which on a whole was down 0.5% Year over Year according to flight tracking data from Argus International.

    The future remains exciting nonetheless. We saw new certifications in 2018 of the G500 and Global 7500. 2019 will celebrate more exciting aircraft with the G600, Global 5500/6500 and Embraer Praetor 400/500 all due for certification. We expect 2019 to be a tougher growth year as new models will be in low ramp up production rates and the inventory of later model pre-owned aircraft remain low.

    How does this affect the Bombardier pre-owned market? Bombardier products ended the year on a high note, with overall inventory levels down nearly 11% year over year across all tracked models and pre-owned sales rose 30% over the previous quarter. Q4 saw substantial jumps in new units delivered as well compared to Q3-18, though up just 1 unit from last year’s close. Most of the market remains at healthy levels, with only the GL5000 Classic and Vision models inching above 10% of the fleet for sale, respectively. With the GL7500 now approved by both the American and Canadian aviation authorities, 2019 should prove to be a continual improving year for the OEM.

    Click here to see the full report.

    This report was originally published in Jet Transactions newsletter on 1/21/19.

     

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    JetTransactions Gulfstream Q4 2018 Quarterly Market Update see more

    NAFA members, Mark Bloomer and Brant Dahlfors, co-founders of Jet Transactions, share the Q4 2018 Market Update.

    2018 continued its upward trend and ended the year with both new and used deliveries and orders up over 2017. However, the big-bang Q4, that so many projected, seemed to be over by mid-November aided by an increasingly caustic political environment, slowing GDP (worldwide), wild stock market gyrations and finally the threat of a Government shut down that materialized by the end of the Qtr. It wasn’t a bad quarter, it just wasn’t a great quarter as buyer caution outweighed the tax benefit fueled activity, which we began seeing in Q2 & Q3. The caution was also evident in aircraft activity which on a whole was down 0.5% Year over Year according to flight tracking data from Argus International.

    The future remains exciting nonetheless. We saw new certifications in 2018 of the G500 and Global 7500. 2019 will celebrate more exciting aircraft with the G600, Global 5500/6500 and Embraer Praetor 400/500 all due for certification. We expect 2019 to be a tougher growth year as new models will be in low ramp up production rates and the inventory of later model pre-owned aircraft remain low.

    How does this affect the Gulfstream pre-owned market? Q4-18 saw a nice jump in activity for both pre-owned and new sales, with an 18% and 63% rise respectively. The G500 is now in service and in the hands of customers both domestically and abroad, and the G600 should be entering service later this year. Owners can look forward to the impressive speed capabilities of both aircraft combined with the legendary Gulfstream cabins. Across the pre-owned market, inventory levels rose roughly 4%, with all tracked models remaining below 10% of the fleet for sale. GIV-SP’s and G450’s saw an amazing year for pre-owned sales, while the newer and larger G650 and G650ER’s slowed down to round out the year.

    Click here to view full report.

    This article was originally published by Jet Transactions on January 21, 2019. 

  • Tracey Cheek posted an article
    NAFA member, Brant Dahlfors, with Jet Transactions, shares the 2018 Q3 Bombardier Market Update. see more

    NAFA member, Brant Dahlfors, with Jet Transactions, shares the 2018 Q3 Bombardier Market Update.

    2018 continues to grow and show strong signs of stability. Q3 was exciting for new product certifications led by Gulfstream announcing the certification of the all new G500 and followed by Bombardier's certification of the Ultra-Long Range Global 7500. On top of new large aircraft product announcements at EBACE in May, confidence in future growth is apparent.

    Overall, in the segments we track, Q3 reflected the normal seasonal variations (vacation time) and new deliveries and pre-owned transactions were down 20+% over Q2. Shops are full with pre- buys and NextGen upgrades in addition to their normal maintenance customers. The pre-owned inventory continues to fall, down another 8.1% this quarter. In many cases, popular late model aircraft are below 5% of the fleet being available for sale. Gross numbers of pre-owned transactions will continue to decline for the foreseeable future as the market is seriously supply constrained.

    How does this affect the Bombardier pre-owned market? With a whirlwind of new options coming to market soon, factory new buyers should soon start the migration from the existing product line to the latest and greatest offerings. Bombardier is well positioned with three new models to discuss – all available for delivery in the next 1-2 years. Overall pre-owned transaction levels dropped significantly across the Bombardier tracked models, with a slight uptick in inventory for sale. New deliveries also edged downward, the largest drop across all three OEM’s, though not uncommon traditionally for the third quarter.

    Read the full report here.

    The original market update was published by Jet Transactions on October 15, 2018.