Skip to Main Content

Used Aircraft Maintenance Analysis – November 2020

Used Aircraft Maintenance Analysis – November 2020

NAFA member, Tony Kioussis, President and CEO of Asset Insight, shares the latest Used Aircraft Maintenance Analysis for November 2020.  

November’s market statistics demonstrated the traditional Q4 buying frenzy, with availability of pre-owned inventory, and Ask Prices decreasing. Which models were impacted the most?  

Strong sales figures were evidenced by Asset Insight’s November 30, 2020 market analysis of 134 fixed-wing models, and 2,111 aircraft listed for sale. The analysis revealed a fifth consecutive monthly contraction (-2.9%) of Asset Insight’s tracked inventory fleet.

The continued buyer focus in all groups except for Light Jets was on lower quality assets (i.e. aircraft with more upcoming maintenance events), helping to improve the inventory fleet’s Quality Rating to set another 12-month high (best) figure (5.371). The asset quality was, thus, further propelled into the ‘Excellent’ range for all of 2020, on Asset Insight’s scale of -2.5 to 10.

November’s Aircraft Value Trends

The tracked fleet’s average Ask Price decreased for the first time in three months, but only by 0.9% (following October’s 12-month high figure). The Year-to-Date (YTD) Ask Price increase is now 0.8%. By aircraft group:

  • Large Jets: Average Ask Price registered a 3.4% decrease in November, worsening the YTD loss to 12.7%;
  • Mid-Size Jets: Pricing decreased 1.6% in November, but was still up 2.1% in 2020;
  • Light Jets: Posted another decrease in November, this time 3.0%, lowering the group’s YTD gain to 4.6%; and
  • Turboprops: Lost 1.7% for November, dropping the YTD figure 0.8% into negative territory.

November’s Fleet for Sale Trends

With Asset Insight’s tracked fleet posting its fifth consecutive monthly decrease in availability (-63 units), YTD inventory was down by 3.3% (-71 units) compared with December 2019.

  • Large Jets: Inventory increased 0.4% (two units), and is currently up 14.8% since December 2019 (64 units).
  • Mid-Size Jets: Inventory for the second consecutive month posted the largest unit decrease among the four groups with a 3.9% reduction of 24 units. That represented a fifth consecutive monthly reduction, and Mid-Size Jet inventory is now down 11.4% YTD (75 units).
  • Light Jets: Inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive month. November’s decrease was 3.3% (20 units), contributing to a YTD inventory decrease of 7.8% (50 units).
  • Turboprop: By posting its fourth consecutive monthly decrease, Turboprop inventory decreased by 4.6% in November (21 units), while, YTD, inventory had fallen 2.2% (10 units).

November’s Maintenance Exposure Trends

Buyer focus on assets with more upcoming maintenance events (lower Quality Rating) had an unexpectedly positive impact on Maintenance Exposure (an aircraft’s accumulated/embedded maintenance expense) for all but the Light Jet category.

The resulting figures, by group, were as follows:

  • Large Jets: Improved/Decreased another 0.3% during November to a figure better than the 12-month average.
  • Mid-Size Jets: Improved by 1.4% to post a 12-month low/best figure.
  • Light Jets: Worsened/Increased 3.1% to post the group’s 12-month worst/highest value.
  • Turboprops: Improved an additional 1.1% to post the group’s second consecutive 12-month low/best figure.

November’s ETP Ratio Trend

The tracked inventory’s ETP Ratio worsened/increased to 70.1%, which was slightly worse than the 12-month average. It compares negatively with October’s 69.8% figure.

The ETP Ratio calculates an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure as it relates to the Ask Price. This is achieved by dividing an aircraft's Maintenance Exposure (the financial liability accrued with respect to future scheduled maintenance events) by the aircraft's Ask Price.

As the ETP Ratio decreases, the asset's value increases (in relation to the aircraft's price). ‘Days on Market’ analysis has shown that when the ETP Ratio is greater than 40%, a listed aircraft’s Days on the Market (DoM) increases, in many cases by more than 30%.

During Q3 2020, aircraft whose ETP Ratio was 40% or greater were listed for sale 50% longer than assets with an ETP Ratio below 40% (269 days versus 404 days). How did each group fare during November?

  • Turboprops: For the past twelve months, Turboprops have registered the best/lowest ETP Ratio, and November’s 40.6% was the group’s third consecutive best 12-month Ratio.
  • Large Jets: Came second with an ETP Ratio of 59.4% - better than the group’s 12-month average, and an improvement over October’s 61.8%.
  • Mid-Size Jets: Rose very slightly to 69.0% from October’s 12-month low/best 68.9%, but the group has registered quite an improvement YTD from January’s 87.4%.
  • Light Jets: Posted a record high/worst figure at 102%, primarily due to buyer preference for higher quality aircraft. That testifies to a different acquisition thought process than buyers in the other three groups.

Excluding models whose ETP Ratio was over 200% during one of the previous two months (considered outliers), following is a breakdown of the business jet and turboprop models that fared the best and worst during November 2020.

Read full report here

This Asset Insight report was published by AvBuyer on December 17, 2020.


 December 21, 2020