NAFA member Brant Dahlfors, co-founder of Jet Transactions, shares the Q1 2019 Bombardier Market Update.
Welcome to another year of uncertainty fueled by declining Global GDP, trade wars and geo- political concerns in major trading markets around the world. The drop in trading activity in the last month of Q4-18 certainly dribbled into early Q1-19. By late-January however activity clearly increased to Oct/Nov levels raising hopes that 2019 would actually show positive growth across new and used aircraft. By the end of Q1 market signals are mixed at best. Charter activity is showing signs of decline as we start the year. This is something to pay close attention to as charter activity is often a “canary in the coal mine” signal.
New aircraft deliveries are down quarter over quarter which is consistent with the seasonality effect as OEMs pull as many aircraft into the fourth quarter as possible. The major OEMs all have new models starting with deliveries beginning from mid-2018 through mid-2020. With low starting production rates, the industry will not see the full effect for another year and a half to two years. On the positive side the OEMs crystal balls all indicate there is a solid market for new high tech models with more range, speed, cabin space and efficiency. In spite of the 8+ new models recently, or soon to be certified, we expect several new exciting airplanes to be introduced before year-end.
How does this affect the Bombardier pre-owned market? After a strong end to 2018, Bombardier saw an about average seasonal slowdown of factory new sales, dropping to 9 new units delivered in the first quarter of the year. The total number of pre-owned units for sale rose 11%, and while the older Globals have all crossed above 10% of their respective fleets for sale, the Challenger markets have stayed strong across the board with less than 5% of their respective fleets for sale. With the first GL7500 now in service and many more gearing up to be delivered in the coming months, Bombardier should continue to see strong demand for both pre-owned and new inventory this year.
Click here to view the full market update.
This market update was originally published by Jet Transactions on April 30, 2019.